Sippin On That Haterade: Minnesota Twins

Like the Florida Marlins, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in contention despite what many justifiably believed was a rebuilding year. Minnesota currently sits 1.5 games behind the first place White Sox and 6 and 7.5 games, respectively, ahead of the preseason favorite Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers. While some are skeptical of the Twins' ability to sustain their success, others are calling for them to add pieces at the trade deadline. So are the Twins actual contenders? And should they make a concerted effort to contend in 2008 or keep up the rebuilding plan in hopes of peaking when GldnKnight park opens in 2010?

The short answer is that the Twins, like the Marlins, probably won’t make the playoffs this year. They’re far more likely to fall within the 80-85 win range and finish a few games out of a playoff spot. Evaluating the Twins on a team level, their run differential indicates they're playing over their heads and have been, for lack of a better word, lucky. They currently sit about 3 games over their expected win-loss record based on non adjusted run differential; when looking at the second and third order standings, the Twins sit even further out from their projections. Minnesota stands about 7 games over their third order wins while nearly every other AL Central team is underperforming its third order wins, indicating the Twins are unlikely to sustain their first half success and overtake the White Sox, let alone hold off the Tigers and Indians, whose adjusted run differentials indicate they should soon surpass the Twins. While there have been exceptions to the “run differential indicates your winning percentage” rule (see: 2007 Diamondbacks), viewing the Twins as one of these exceptions is dubious.

Statistically the offensive picture isn’t as rosy as it appears. Presently the Twins are 4^th in the AL in runs scored. Fucking sweet, right? Well, not really. Their team OBP hovers around .325, good for about 10^th in the AL. They aren’t making up for the lack of on base ability with power, as their team slugging is in the middle of the pack at about .395. Despite low OBP and SLG, they rank near the top of the AL in runs scored. Having a team OBP and OPS rank significantly lower than your runs scored indicates fluky, unsustainable results. Minnesota's overall hitter VORP is good for 20^th in the league, further indicating they aren’t likely to sustain their current runs scored rate. In yet another negative indicator, the Twins’ team EQA sits at .260, about league average; however they’re about 36 runs over what would be expected out of their team EQA, which is second only to Pittsburgh in terms of overachieving their expected scoring rate. Unless the Twins suddenly develop patience or have Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer go on a power binge, they won’t keep scoring runs at their current pace.

Outside of All-Star performances from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, no regulars are providing the necessary OBP or power from their positions. The infield's left side is probably the AL’s worst at the plate, and the corner outfielders have grossly underachieved their projected performances. Now it’s entirely possible that Michael Cuddyer dislodges his head from his ass and lives up to his contract in the second half, but unless Minnesota sees significant improvement from him, Carlos Gomez, and Delmon Young, expect the offensive output to significantly decline.

Cuddyer actually might have a chance of rebounding in the second half. His line drive rates are in line with his 2006 rates and his BABIP is about .025 below what it should be based on his LD%. His HR/FB % has tailed off significantly and could be due to a decrease in strength, but it’s more likely this decrease is just bad luck. He’s not hopeless by any means, and I’d expect his average, OBP, and power to increase in the second half, although he won’t be as good the rest of the way as he’s been so far in June.

Even though his season has been excellent thus far, Joe Mauer, like Cuddyer, could see his numbers improve in 2008's second half. Mauer’s walk rate is back up to 2006 levels and his strikeout rate is down. He’s increased his line drive % from 2007, although he still hasn’t gotten back up to his 2005 and 2006 rates; he’s hitting too many balls in the air that aren’t going for HRs. Mauer has seen a decrease in HR/FB% from his career rates; like Cuddyer, his HRs could be expected to increase in the second half. His average/OBP might drop though – his BABIP is around .350, which is about .025 points higher than what you’d expect based on his LD% (typically a player’s BABIP is .120 above their LD%). It’s doubtful Mauer and Cuddyer’s increases alone will be enough to offset the anticipated decline in runs scored though.

Despite underachieving so far in 2008, Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young remain intriguing players. Young has done a decent job hitting for average, but despite increasing his walk rate he still doesn’t walk enough. More alarming is Young lack of power production. His LD% is down a bit from his Tampa days, and his HR/FB% is down dramatically; these declining rates undoubtedly illustrate his lack of power (and a bit of bad luck). However, a bigger reason why he’s not hitting the doubles and HRs expected out of him is that his GB% is up a whopping 12% from his previous professional seasons. I’m not sure if this GB increase is just a fluke or if the Twins are instructing him to hit the ball on the ground; if it’s the former I’d expect him to rebound, although if it’s the latter then I’d wouldn’t expect any improvement is on the horizon. I’ve heard the Twins teach their players to keep the ball down and make contact, and while that’s fine for speedy guys without power potential such as Carlos Gomez, teaching those same techniques to a corner OF with the projectable power of Young is questionable.

Carlos Gomez is fun to watch and, in time, should become a fine top of the order hitter, but he’s currently miscast in the leadoff spot. Granted, he’s more or less there by default, but leading off with a guy struggling to OBP .300 solely because he’s fast isn’t an effective way to run an offense. Unfortunately, the Twins don’t seem likely to change, albeit mostly because of a lack of other options. Gomez’s strikeout rates are high, although that’s to be expected and, honestly, not the worst thing in the world. More jarring is his weak walk rate and that, based on his LD% of 16.9 and his BABIP of .341, he could be expected to see a drop in average/OBP unless he begins hitting more line drives in the second half. I like Gomez and think that, in time, he’ll become a decent leadoff hitter and centerfielder – he’s already excellent defensively. But he’s not a legitimate major league hitter yet.

The Twins' pitching staff is unlikely to show the improvement necessary to offset the expected offensive decline. At present, the team ERA is 4.31, good for 9th in the American League. While the Twins do a fantastic job preventing free passes, as they’ve given up the fewest walks in the AL, they surrender too many hits and don't strike out nearly enough batters. Lack of strikeouts is the primary reason for the inflated ERA. Although all three regular outfielders show good to excellent range and Brendan Harris and Adam Everett haven’t been bad, the team defense as a whole does a poor job of converting batted balls into outs, as their defensive efficiency sits near the bottom of the league. This subpar defensive efficiency is, along with the lack of strikeouts, responsible for the Twins' high hits against rate. Their current pitcher VORP is 21^st in the league, yet they’ve allowed the 4^th fewest runs, which is another indication their run prevention ability isn’t commensurate with their actual results. In short, they’ve been pretty lucky they haven’t allowed more runs this year. So in addition to likely scoring fewer runs in the second half, the Twins, barring an unexpected turnaround, aren’t likely to see a dramatic increase in their ability to prevent runs. The team ERA is actually more likely to rise than fall in the coming months.

Fortunately for the pitching staff, some players have excelled thus far and should continue their strong performances. Scott Baker is one example; his current ERA sits about where you’d expect it to be based on his WHIP, and his BABIP isn’t so out of line that he’s likely to see his ERA increase in the second half. He’s not a real groundball guy but makes up for that with his control and strikeout ability. He’s been throwing more curveballs and has added a slider this year, which could partially explain his success provided he’s able to adequately command those pitches. Baker, if healthy, should be able to be a front line starter for the Twins the rest of the way, although he likely profiles as a #2 or #3 guy in the long run.

Nick Blackburn is having a nice season, although his lack of strikeout ability likely profiles him as a back of the rotation pitcher in the long run. As a decent ground ball pitcher, he’s valuable, but he can’t anchor a rotation and carry a team. Blackburn gives up too many hits, but his ability to cut down on walks should keep him in the rotation for the foreseeable future. His current major league numbers are pretty much in line with his minor league stats; what you see right now is likely the best you’ll get from Blackburn, but there isn’t reason to believe he can’t continue what he’s done up to this point.

Kevin Slowey is another solid middle of the rotation pitcher. He gives up a fair amount of hits but makes up for it by not walking people, and his strikeout rates are well above average and in line with his past career and minor league numbers. In 2008 he’s done a better job of getting grounders, perhaps because he’s increased his fastball use and relied less on his slider, and as a result his ERA and WHIP have dropped. His ERA isn’t out of line with his WHIP and his BABIP, among other secondary stats, aren’t dramatically indicative of a coming rise in ERA. Slowey should be able to sustain his current performance and be a mid-rotation pitcher the Twins can rely on down the stretch.

Among starters, Livan Hernandez and Boof Bonser are the primary culprits of the Twins high team ERA. While adding Glen Perkins to the rotation might help in a “can’t get any worse” way, kicking Hernandez to the curb would benefit the rotation even more. If the Twins can find anyone willing to give them a warm body for Hernandez they should probably take it. Just by being on the team Hernandez has been doing the Twins more harm than good – his 2008 performance has been below replacement level. Even if Bill Smith believes the Twins are “in it” they can do better with just about anyone else in the rotation. Jettisoning Hernandez and getting back a semi-effective Liriano would go a long way towards helping the Twins keep up their current rate of runs allowed.

The Twins bullpen has been decent. Joe Nathan is having a typically excellent season, although signing him to a long term contract was idiotic for reasons mostly related to investing about 17% percent of the payroll in a guy pitching about 6% percent of the innings and the generally overvalued notion of closers. I’m of the belief the Twins would be smart to shop Nathan at the deadline for 3B or SP prospects, but his contract extension probably prevents any beneficial trade possibilities. Matt Guerrier and Dennys Reyes are having nice seasons as well, although Guerrier is more likely to regress due to his poor K/BB and HR rates. Guerrier does an ok job keeping the ball on the ground, but his strikeout rate is down from his career average and his walk rate is up; if he’s able to get back to his minor league and career strikeout/walk rates, Guerrier could sustain his success. If he can't improve his strikeout and walk rates, Guerrier's effectiveness will decline in the second half and he'll see his ERA rise.

The Twins have some solid pieces in the rotation and the bullpen. Still, their team pitching won't significantly improve in the season's second half; coupled with the anticipated offensive decline, the Twins won't make a real playoff run in 2008.The offense can’t keep scoring at this rate without some outside help, and unless Liriano can come back as his old self this team probably doesn’t have the pitching to succeed down the stretch.

Minnesota has a bright future. This season’s performance makes 2009 much more interesting, and when the team moves into the new park in 2010 they should be a legit World Series contender if they add a few key pieces. There are already cornerstone guys at C and 1B, decent pieces in RF and the rotation, and some promising young guys in CF, LF and at 2B. Eventually they’ll need to pick up a real 3B via trade, preferably one that can hit for power, and if Liriano can’t come back healthy they don’t really have anyone who profiles as a future staff ace. While the ace might be tough to find, the 3B won’t be if Bill Smith is more willing to trade young guys than was Terry Ryan. Provided the kids keep progressing and Smith can find that 3B and a front-line starter, the fall of 2010 will be a fun time to be a Twins fan.

(Note: Lest you think this is some kind of OMGFUCKDATWINS hatchet job, I assure you it’s not. I went into this piece with an open mind and came up with this. Sorry. Also, I’m writing a similar piece about the Marlins next week and the conclusion (80-83 wins, no playoffs) is the same, albeit for different reasons.)

(Note 2: I’m willing to expand this, further explaining my reasoning and analyzing individual players if some (likely GldnKnight) take issue with parts of this piece. I just didn’t want a 4,000 word piece on the Twins this week.)