A New Twins Killer

Forget Mark Buehrle, a new sheriff is leading the Pale Hose in the race for the AL Central Division. His name is Gavin Floyd.
Floyd, who was acquired in the Freddy Garcia trade with the Phillies, has owned the Twins this season. He is 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings pitched in four starts, following his 8-3 win Wednesday night at the Metrodome. The 25-year old righthander has held Minnesota to just a .168 batting average, while posting a 1.16 WHIP with just 26 total baserunners in his outings.
After experiencing his dominance last night in person, I'd say the Twins have their work cut out for them, not only this season, but for many years to come.

LAME

Back to reality. The Manny to Florida deal is dead.

Man, I'm pissed.

/wets self

Actually, the title should read: /potentially wets self

Manny's likely headed to Miami. ESPN was reporting "serious" talks and now BP is saying this is on the verge of happening.

I'll publish my complete thoughts if/when this deal is completed. If the trade includes Jeremy Hermida and any pitching prospect not named Sean West or Chris Volstad, I like the trade. If it includes Jeremy Hermida and Mike Stanton, as BP is reporting, then I don't like it. Any other combinations I reserve judgment on until I hear about them.

Sweet fuck.

OMG.WTF.BBQ.

From Baseball Prospectus:

One good source told me that he had heard that the Marlins were involved [in a Manny Ramirez deal], willing to give up Jeremy Hermida and Boston-area product Jeff Allison...

Jesus Christ. I'd put the likelihood of this happening somewhere between 0% and GldnKnight foregoing extra cheese on his nachos (or -2.7%). That being said: Cartman and I share an opinion on this potential deal.


I'll have more baseball stuff once the trade deadline passes and some shit actually does, or does not, go down.

Update: Ken Rosenthal has picked up the rumor. Tracking...

Potential Trade Target: Brian Fuentes

Both the Florida Marlins and Minnesota Twins seem to be fashioning themselves as contenders who are willing to add players at the upcoming trade deadline. While the Marlins and Twins have different weaknesses (Florida: C and RP; Minnesota: 3B, CF, and Livan), one player might be a possibility for both teams. That player is LHP Brian Fuentes of the Colorado Rockies. Reports indicate the Marlins are targeting Fuentes; although no reports indicate the Twins are looking to add relief pitching, AJR believes Fuentes should be a key target for Bill Smith. So, because we've got nothing better to do, let’s evaluate Brian Fuentes.

With 39 innings pitched (at the time of this writing), Brian Fuentes currently sports a 3.23 ERA with 16 Saves. Since saves and ERA are a terrible way to evaluate relief pitchers, we’ll disregard those numbers and focus on other numbers more indicative of his performance.

{Why is ERA a bad way to evaluate relief pitchers? Because it can be overly inflated by one poor outing and thus not indicate a reliever’s true worth. Example: in Fuentes’ case, he hasn’t given up a run in his last 7 outings that total 7 innings pitched. However, in the outing before that he gave up 5 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning. And in the outing before his 5 ER debacle he gave up 2 runs in 1/3 of an inning. The 10 2/3 innings before that (covering his previous 11 outings), he gave up zero earned runs. So in Fuentes’ last 20 outings, Fuentes has 18 good performances and 2 bad performances, which is a pretty good result for a reliever. But in his last 7 2/3 IP he’s given up 7 runs, which makes for an awful ERA. Additionally, if Fuentes enters a game with runners on 2^nd and 3^rd base and 2 outs, gives up a run scoring single but then gets the third out, his ERA is zero even though he allowed two runs to score. Basically, a reliever’s ERA has sample size issues and doesn’t account for how many runs he actually allows to score.

What's a good way to measure a reliever’s value? Well, what’s the most important task for a relief pitcher? Not allow runs. But run prevention is different for relievers than it is for starters; starters never enter a game with runners on base. Relievers are often asked, and expected, to strand runners who were on base when they entered the game. LOB% is one decent, simple measurement of a reliever's ability.

The easiest way to ensure these runners are stranded? Strike the batters out. Like any pitcher, a reliever with high strikeout ability is more valuable than one who gets ground balls (i.e. “pitches to contact”). Why? Because when the ball is put in play, chances for “productive outs” (i.e. sacrifice flies that score/advance runners, ground balls to the right side of the infield that score/advance runners) exist. With strikeouts, there’s no chance for a productive out. Also, like any pitcher, a reliever who doesn’t walk people is preferred over one who can’t keep runners off the basepaths via the free pass.

Cliff notes version: ERA is a poor way to measure a reliever’s value because of the sample size issues related to IP and a reliever’s ERA not including any inherited runners they allowed to score. Out of a reliever, you want a guy who strands runners, strikes people out, doesn’t walk people, and doesn’t give up HRs. Strikeout ability is a bit more crucial in a quality reliever than a starter because of the chances a reliever will enter the game with runners on base. Also, holds suck. Please don’t bring those up.}

Fuentes fits the profile of a solid, but not great, reliever. In his 39 IP, he’s struck out 41 and walked 11, good for 9.46 K/9 and a 3.73 K/BB. Both are very good ratios for a RP. Fuentes’ 2008 K and K/BB rates are not that far off his career rates; while his K/BB is up over his career rates, the increase is due to Fuentes’ increased ability to prevent walks, which probably won’t subside this season. His WHIP sits at 1.13, which is right in line with his 2006 and 2007 performances. His BABIP is around .317, so his number of hits shouldn’t increase as long as he keeps doing what he’s doing. His HR/FB rate is well below his career averages, and while that can be expected to rise, if he gets away from Coors Field that increase won’t be dramatic.

Still, Fuentes has problems. Primarily, he’s not doing a great job of stranding runners, as his LOB % sits at only 63.4%. Based on his peripherals, though, that percentage should be expected to rise in the second half. Fuentes has also had some key meltdowns, and if you want to use translated statistics, his WXLR pegs him as good but not outstanding. His Win Probability Added is also less than impressive. Both his WXLR and WPI indicate that while Fuentes is a decent pitcher, he shouldn't be made out to be a savior for anyone's bullpen, particularly if he's inserted into a 9th inning role.

Despite his issues, Fuentes is an above average reliever. Could he help the Twins? Probably. He’d be an upgrade over any of their current relievers not named Joe Nathan. But the bullpen isn’t the Twins greatest weakness; it’s actually above average. The Twins should use their expendable prospects to address more pressing needs; if they’re upgrading with a player from outside the organization, it should be a third baseman. If Adrian Beltre is too expensive, Casey Blake would be a nice addition.

Fuentes is a far better target for the Marlins. Florida’s bullpen is bad; their team ERA isn’t terrible, but, as their WHIP and other peripherals indicate, they’re getting by on smoke and mirrors. Kevin Gregg is an average, at best, 9^th inning guy, and the rest of the bullpen is interchangeably mediocre. As either the 8^th inning or 9^th inning guy, Fuentes would upgrade the entire bullpen and allow the Marlins to shift relievers such as Renyel Pinto, Joe Nelson, and Matt Lindstrom into roles more conducive to their abilities.

After Jim Bowden’s retardedly wretched return on Jon Rauch, the Fuentes price might not be as high as Dan O’Dowd wishes. Still, cost is going to be a factor for Fuentes; judging by his asking price for Matt Holliday, Dan O’Dowd is fucking insane. But as the trade deadline gets closer, Fuentes’ price tag will drop. While Fuentes would help both the Twins and Marlins, if the Twins decide to deal prospects they shouldn’t trade them for a RP. Instead, Minnesota should pick up Beltre or Blake. Fuentes fits much better in Florida – he probably pushes them from 80 wins to 82 wins. Wahoo.

Determining Greatness

One of my favorite blogs is written by KC Star writer Joe Posnanski. He is funny, intelligent, blunt, and nostalgic. And unlike many sports writers today he knows what OBP means and why it is important.

On Monday, Joe wrote a piece that attempted to measure “greatness” in a baseball player. In theory, according to Posnanski, if a player meets the requirements for “greatness” then their election into the Hall of Fame should be a foregone conclusion. Sadly, based on his math, there are a few guys who meet or exceed his standards of greatness that remain outside of the Hall of Fame and there are a few who have been elected into the Hall that do not meet his requirements for “greatness”.

In Joe's own words:

I looked at everyday players since 1900 and tried to count how many truly GREAT seasons they had — I’m using GREAT as all capital letters, so we’re talking only the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history. What I ended up doing — for reasons that seemed to make sense at 1:30 a.m. when I was working on this — was to determine that a player had a GREAT season if he either:

1. Posted a 163 OPS+ or better for a full year.

2. Created 60 or more runs above league average.

You may ask: Why those particular numbers? Hell, I don’t remember. Quit hounding me! In the end, I don’t think for this experiment it really matters how you determine what makes up a “great season.” You could do it a thousand different ways — you could count seasons where someone scores 100 runs and drives in 100, or you could count seasons where someone finished in the Top 5 in the MVP voting, or you could count batting titles, or you could count seasons where announcers universally acknowledged that the player in question was “gritty.” I used those two measures because I think they’re pretty good, and, even more, because they were easy enough to sort. I would have used VORP too, just to tick off this guy but I didn’t really know how to go about doing it.

So, the list gave me about 200 different players, which I thought was good. Then I counted seasons. I naturally found that the immortals are on top of the list. Babe Ruth had 15 seasons with an OPS+ of 163 or better and 14 seasons where he created 60 or more runs above average. Obviously most of these seasons overlap, so I just averaged them out and say that the Babe had 14.5 GREAT seasons, all capital letters. Every single player with more than 5 GREAT seasons is either in the Hall of Fame or is named Barry Bonds/Frank Thomas.

1. Babe Ruth, 14.5 GREAT seasons.

(tie) Ty Cobb, 14.5

3. Barry Bonds, 13

4. Ted Williams, 12

5. Lou Gehrig, 11

(tie) Stan Musial, 11

7. Rogers Hornsby, 9.5

8. Tris Speaker, 9

9. Willie Mays, 8.5

(tie) Honus Wagner, 8.5

11. Frank Thomas, 8

(tie) Jimmie Foxx, 8

13. Mickey Mantle, 7.5

14. Hank Aaron, 6

(tie) Mel Ott, 6

16. Frank Robinson, 5.5.

That’s a pretty good list right there. If you add in some defensive value, maybe adjust slightly for speed and your intangible of choice, you could probably order that list into the 16 greatest players of all time. Albert Pujols already has 4.5 great seasons, and will almost certainly be on this list at the end of this season.

But there’s no mystery at the top. We already know that those are some of the greatest players ever. There’s really no dispute about any of those guys, except maybe Frank Thomas who has probably not gotten his fair due because he’s spent most of his career as a DH and because two of his unreal seasons were shortened by the strike and because, even though he managed to stay above suspicions, he did play in the Soup Du Juice.

I recommend you read the entire post for yourself as it is quite interesting, and although you can certainly debate his criteria, Mr. Posnanski raises some interesting names for election into the Hall of Fame, including Albert Belle.

The reason for Joe’s post is to start a discussion on what constitutes greatness in a baseball player. Where should we draw the line for offensive Hall of Famers?

That’s ultimately my goal here as well. I’ve always been of the belief that if you have to debate whether or not a guy deserves to be in the HOF then he’s not worthy. Obviously, this limits the quantity of Hall of Famers, but I believe that to be the point. Any discussion of Andy Pettitte for the HOF should cease to exist. An extended period of above-average play, and a PED admission, does not validate a Hall of Fame career. In my opinion.

Like Mr. Posnanski, I believe Edgar Martinez deserves a spot in the HOF. The biggest knock on him is not that he lacks the offensive numbers for election rather it’s that he was a DH for the vast majority of his career. Since 1973, the DH has been an official position in the lineup. And he was the best at his position for the better part of a decade. That alone constitutes his election.

So what criteria do you use to measure greatness? Does this equate to HOF electability?

Let’s get this discussion started!

Successful Reclamation Projects: Jorge Cantu

As the Minnesota Twins have proven over the past few years, finding league average production at 3B can be challenging. Well, actually, no. It’s not difficult to find corner IFs on the free agent market who don’t chug Koala cock. As an example, let’s look at the Marlins solution to replacing Miguel Cabrera.

Last offseason, the Marlins inked 3 players to compete for their open 3B position: Jorge Cantu, Jose Castillo, and Dallas McPherson. All three were flawed players signed to one year contracts. As is their modus operandi, the Marlins let these cheap veterans compete for their 3B job in spring training. Cantu hit well enough to win the job in the spring, and Castillo was released, partially because the Marlins thought he wouldn’t accept a backup role and would become a detriment off the field. Vishnu knows they have enough of those. Castillo signed with San Francisco, where he currently sports a .258/.313/.410 line with below average defense. McPherson was unsurprisingly hurt in spring training but currently is raking at AAA. Dallas should be the Marlins 2009 third baseman after Cantu is traded when he becomes arbitration eligible this offseason.

Jorge Cantu had a solid 2005 for Tampa Bay, hitting .286/.311/.497 while primarily playing 2B. In 2006 Cantu broke his foot and missed part of the year. Upon his return, the foot was clearly bothering him, and he limped to a .249/.295/.404 finish. Cantu began 2007 in AAA after the Rays imported Akinori Iwamura from Japan to man 3B. He sulked in AAA, demanded a trade to Cincinnati, and didn’t impress, as he hit .292/.331/.357. While in Cincinnati, Cantu's patience increased but his power decreased. Following the 2007 season Cantu found himself a free agent looking for an opportunity to earn major league playing time. Enter Florida and their gaping hole at 3B left by the Cabrera trade.

Cantu has been balls out awesome this season, particularly when looking at the preseason expectations for him (PECOTA's 50th percentile projection was .268/.324/.430). He’s hitting .297/.337/.496 and delivered another walk off win for Florida yesterday, pulling the Fish within a half game of the first place Phillies and Mets. Cantu’s season might seem unsustainable, particularly when looking at his 2006 and 2007 stats. But 2006 should be disregarded because of an injury that plagued him all year, while 2007 was marred by his demotion and sulking. For simplicity’s sake I’ll discount 2007. The better comparison is to see if Cantu's 2008 numbers are sustainable with his 2005, which was his last full, healthy major league season.

Cantu’s numbers aren’t far off from his 2005. His walk rate is consistent with his 2006 and 2007 levels, and his strikeout numbers sit between his 2005 and 2007 seasons. So his plate discipline is probably here to stay. His power is up, but his isolated power is on track with his 2005 levels, making his level of power consistent with his past performances. He's beating baseballs like he beats women (Kidding! Those charges were dismissed). Even his batting average should be sustainable. His line drive rate sits at 19% and his batting average on balls in play is at .313, which is right near the .120 difference to be expected from a 19% line drive rate (.190 + .120 = .310 expected BABIP). So, unlike other Marlins, there’s no reason to expect Cantu’s performance to drop off.

Cantu isn’t without deficiencies. His 3B defense is bad. He doesn’t have great range, and he’s committed a number of throwing errors most full time 3B would not, although that’s to be expected from a former 2B. Ideally Florida would shift Cantu to 1B, call up McPherson to play 3B, and sit Mike Jacobs. But that’s probably not going to happen; they’ll have to deal Jacobs to an AL team needing a lefty DH who doesn’t get on base but hits a good number of home runs.

Cantu is one reason the Marlins remain in contention. They’re still a flawed team, with even some of their better players exhibiting undesirable traits. For example, Dan Uggla still has the plate approach of a developmentally stunted gorilla, even if he does mash home runs. But with Josh Johnson's recent, successful comeback, the debut of uber-prospect Chris Volstad, and the anticipated return of Anibal Sanchez, the Marlins might finally have starting pitching capable of carrying them to the playoffs. Now, the bullpen is still subpar, the defense is awful, and the 1B and catching situations remain bad, but this team might be able to hang in the race until September. I’m cautiously optimistic about their chances for the first time this season. Is that optimism misplaced? Probably. But fuck you. Optimism is all I have.

If You Don't Believe Us About Adrian Beltre

Then take BP's word on his potential value to the Twins:

3. Adrian Beltre, Mariners: If you look at Beltre's career without the 2004 season, he appears to be one of the most consistent players in the game. That one year, in which he hit 47 homers for the Dodgers before signing a $65 million contract, skews the perception of him. Add in that he has played his entire career in two great pitchers' parks and that his defense is legitimately great, and you have a player who has become a bit undervalued. Given where the market has gone, the $19 million or so left on his deal through 2009 isn't a daunting commitment for a contender to take on right now.

The league-wide depth at third base is impressive, but one contender has spent the year trying to patch a gaping hole there. The Twins have used seven players at the hot corner, and only the empty .300 average of Brian Buscher has been of much use. Their third-base defense has been terrible as well. Beltre would add value on both sides of the ball, one of the few trade-deadline targets who can make that claim. His .272 EqA would make him one of the better hitters in the Twins lineup, at least a 15-run upgrade over running Buscher out there the rest of the season. His glove would save five runs, and perhaps a bit more, over the last 70 games. That's a gain of 20-25 runs by trading for Beltre.

For the Twins, the best part is that they might be able to get him for just a willingness to assume the contract obligation. The Twins have a raft of pitching prospects in the minors to go with their homegrown major league rotation. Two second-tier prospects and, effectively, $19 million would probably be enough to get Beltre. It is unlike the Twins to make that kind of trade, but they can certainly afford it—every team can afford that kind of investment—and it's a move that would go right to their win column. That Beltre is such a good defensive player, the kind of player the Twins have always wanted around, could be the deciding factor.

The Twins can't count on an anomalous performance with runners in scoring position to continue. To win the AL Central, they have to improve the roster. Trading for Beltre and swapping out Livan Hit-nandez for Francisco Liriano would change the story in the division immediately.

Pull the trigger, William.

Man, He's Pissed: Francisco Liriano

Know that whole "let's keep Francisco Liriano in the minors to limit his service time and keep him cost controlled for another year" thing? Um, that's not going over so well. Highlighted sections come from Ken Rosenthal:

Left-hander Francisco Liriano is "extremely frustrated" that he is
still in the minor leagues with the Minnesota Twins, according to his agent,
Greg Genske.

Genske contacted the players' association about pursuing a grievance, and the union agreed to investigate whether the Twins are violating the collective-bargaining agreement by keeping him at Class AAA Rochester, the agent said.

...

"He's now dominating," Genske told FOXSports.com. "The team agrees he's
dominating. (The union) has determined that there is reasonable cause to open an
investigation to see whether the Twins, by leaving him in the minors, are
violating his rights in the Basic Agreement."

If Liriano filed a grievance, he could seek either a restoration of
major-league service time, financial compensation or both. His loss of
major-league time already will prevent him from qualifying for salary
arbitration with three years of service and almost certainly will prevent him
from qualifying as a "Super Two" player as well.

Now, I don't think Liriano has much of a case here. In similar situations other teams keep guys in the minors, and the Twins can justify the move by, among other ways, arguing they don't want to call up Liriano and be forced to eat Livan's salary. But it's never good to piss off your franchise pitcher, particularly when you'll one day be asking him to take a hometown discount to stay in Minnesota.

Later in Rosenthal's article, this Bill Smith quote appears and makes me question his fitness for the GM position:

"Fortunately for our club, we've got a run going. Our starters are all doing
the job."

By now, every reader of this blog should know my feelings on Hernandez. I'm wasting both my time and yours by continually showing how poorly Livan performs his job.

In other bad ideas:

Smith said the Twins have three options for Liriano: the starting rotation,
the bullpen or leaving him in Rochester.

Obviously, Francisco can't be left in Rochester if the Twins are making themselves out to be contenders, as they seem to be doing.

Placing Francisco in the bullpen is a horrible idea for a number of reasons, primarily because a quality starter is almost always more valuable than a quality reliever. If Liriano returns as a reliever, he's probabaly throwing around 35 innings the rest of the year, while if he returns as a starter he's throwing closer to 90, so long as the Twins don't shut him down in September. 90 innings of a pitcher with an ERA around 4 is more valuable than 35 innings of a pitcher with lower but similar ERA, especially when said SP is replacing a starter with a June ERA over 6 and a July ERA close to 8.

There's a method of calculating exactly how many more runs Liriano would save the Twins by replacing Hernandez instead of being inserted into an 8th inning or LOOGY role. But I won't delve into that analysis since the majority of this blog hates when I use stats. Because stats lie but your eyes don't. Suffice to say, the difference is significant enough to render Gardy a dumbshit if he puts Liriano in the bullpen.

Start Liriano. Platoon Span and Gomez. Acquire a 3B bat. Make the playoffs. It's simple, really.

Even Dickens Didn't Foreshadow This Well

Courtesy of former Deadspin editor Will Leitch's All Star photo album comes this pregame picture of NL goat and Florida Marlins 2B Dan Uggla sitting alone in his pre-game parade pickup truck. Out of respect, I link to the picture rather than posting it. Check out the entire album. It's quite cool.

As you surely saw, once the game started Dan set a few All-Star records with a performance best described as "Challenger-esque."

I can't wait until Uggla goes through a typical second half slump and someone, likely Mike Berardino, blames the slump on either the HR derby or All-Star game. As any reasonable person will tell you, the derby curse is ignorant mainstream media-driven bullshit.

The over/under for someone blaming a poor performance from Uggla on either the All-Star game or HR derby is 9 days.

Unmentioned in the Hamilton Lovefest: Josh Is A Douche

Josh Hamilton put on an impressive power display tonight, and everyone was beside themselves commending Hamilton for overcoming crazy drugs to turn his life around. But in order to throw rain on his parade, I share this tale of him switching agents because Matt Sosnick wasn't Christian enough for him.

The cliff notes version:

Hamilton, a born-again Christian after returning from bouts with his drug addiction, explained to friends that he wanted to be with a Christian stable, so he switched agents from Matt Sosnick to Michael Moye as he seemed to be closing in on a long contract.

Like 95% of agents, Sosnick is a noted shitbag, but in all the slobbering over Josh's diseased cock this story has gone largely unmentioned. And you, dear reader, deserve to be enlightened.

You're welcome.

Wondering What Could Have Been

28 homeruns in 38 swings.

Incredible.

Josh Hamilton's "Ruthian" show at tonight's home run derby only makes us wonder what could have been. His story has been well-documented, but what if he hadn't had that car crash? What if he had not gotten addicted to drugs? What if he didn't miss what amounts to a possible 810 games in the majors?
With his current 1:17 HR to AB ratio, Hamilton would be sitting around 240 long-balls (instead of 40). Still behind the pace set by A-Rod, Hamilton could have potentially been one of the five youngest players to reach 300 home runs if his nose had stayed clean.

But it didn't.

The Twins Want Offense: Adrian Beltre

We’ve discussed, ad nausem, how the Twins need to improve their offense and defense if they hope to catch the Chi-Sox. Fortunately, they seem to feel the same way – at least about the offense. No, they’re not addressing CF, but they are looking to upgrade the biggest non-Livan/non-Gomez weakness on the team – third base. From the Star Tribune, via Fanhouse:

The Twins recently contacted Seattle to inquire about third baseman Adrian Beltre as they look for ways to boost their offense against lefthanded pitching, a club source said.

It's unclear how deep the discussions got, but the Twins decided to act on the internal discussions they had about the Mariners slugger.

Beltre is no longer an outstanding 3B either offensively or defensively, but he’s an upgrade over the Twins current 3B tandem of Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris. At worst, he could platoon with Buscher for the remainder of 2008 and 2009, and he might even be able to hold down 3B full time. An .330 OBP/.800 OPS, defensively decent 3B would be an upgrade over anything the Twins could conceivably run out in the near future. Plus, having Beltre for his 2009 contract year could prove prudent. In Beltre’s previous contract year he increased his production from his non-contract year 2003 .240/.290/.424 to his 2004 .334/.388/.629, although based on LD%, BABIP, and HR/FB those 2004 results were a bit fluky.

While Beltre would help the Twins and the Mariners are open to dealing him, major impediments to acquiring Adrian exist. Current 3B albatross Mike Lamb is owed 3.5 million in 2009, with a 100k buyout in 2010, while Beltre gets 11.5 million in 2009, the final year of his contract. So Minnesota would presumably require the Mariners to pay part of Beltre’s contract, and by acquiring Beltre the Twins would be making a two year commitment to him as their 3B.

Additionally, Beltre could cost the Twins at least one above average prospect. If Minnesota was willing to take on all of Beltre’s salary, they could likely acquire him for mid-range pitching prospects such as, for example, Alex Burnett and Zach Ward. Since the Twins would most likely ask Seattle to absorb most of Beltre’s contract, they’ll have to give up better prospects. Not anyone like Ben Revere or Anthony Swarzak, but a Jeff Manship would be a reasonable start for the Twins package, and Bill Smith might see that as too high a cost.

Beltre would improve the Twins in both 2008 and 2009, and his contract would be cleared in 2010 when the Twins can hopefully have a young 3B in place for the new stadium opening. But the upgrade isn’t particularly substantial and the costs, in terms of both salary and prospects, are potentially high. A platoon of Buscher and a non-Harris, non-Lamb 3B could probably put together a .725-.750 OPS, although with less defensive value. So unless the Twins think Beltre can produce around an .825 OPS or the acquisition costs are significantly lower than anticipated, Bill Smith might judge Beltre to be too expensive. Until we know who the Mariners ask for, I can’t say with certainty whether he’s making the right decision. Regardless, it’s nice to see the Twins are looking to help themselves, even if easier ways to better their offense exist.

Jesus H. Christ

In my time on Earth I’ve heard some stupid suggestions, but this one might take the cake. Around the 5^th inning of tonight’s Twins-Tigers game, Dick and Bert had the following exchange: (rough transcript)

Dick: Well with Francisco Liriano ready to return, you have to wonder how the Twins are going to fit him into the rotation.

Bert: It’s a nice problem to have.

Dick: In talking with some scouts, one of them posed the idea of a six man rotation, which might not be a bad thought.

Bert: Well the game has changed, but if ever you were going to see it, now would be a time.

A 6 man rotation?!? Are the only other options (1) cloning Livan Hernandez and inserting each clone into the rotation spots in place of Baker, Slowey, Perkins, and Blackburn or (2) exposing the entire pitching staff to unprotected sex with Freddy Mercury?

Sorry this week has turned us into a Livan sucks blog.

Where in the World is Francisco Liriano?

With yesterday’s 7-6, 11 inning come-from-behind victory, the Minnesota Twins moved their record to ten games over .500 at 51-41. This mark becomes even more impressive when you take into consideration they have allowed the major leagues worst starting pitcher to make 20 of the team’s starts on the mound. After getting bombed by the Red Sox on Wednesday, Livan Hernandez is approaching historic territory with his run of shittyness in 2008. If you fail to take my or dmk’s word for it, these three articles should convince you naïve twats otherwise. If the Twins and GM Bill Smith are smart, they should trade Hernandez and his $5,000,000 salary, to a national league team who needs an upgrade at a fourth or fifth spot in the rotation and try to get something…anything in return.

A trade of Line Drive Livan might anger some of the folks in Twins Territory because of the appearance that the organization is once again giving up on a season when the team is in contention. On the contrary, shedding the dead weight of Hernandez (pun intended) would do no harm to the Twins’ playoff chances, so long as Francisco Liriano was called up from Triple A Rochester to enter the rotation. “The Franchise”, as he was dubbed in 2006, made his sixteenth start last evening for the Red Wings against the Durham Bulls and dominated, striking out eight in seven scoreless innings.

Liriano made three starts with the Twins in April, going 0-3 with an 11.32 ERA. During these pitching debacles, the Franchise channeled his inner Rick Vaughn and allowed 13 walks in just 10.1 innings pitched. He was quickly optioned to Triple A Rochester where he has apparently altered his mechanics and significantly improved his control, which were the question marks following spring training. This season at Rochester, he is 7-2 with a 3.53 ERA and his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.1/1. Over his last three starts, he has not allowed an earned run in 20 innings pitched and has surrendered just 10 total hits. Judging by the last three outings, and the Franchise’s gradual improvement over the season, it is clear that he is ready to return to Minnesota and bump Livan Hernandez from the rotation.

But don’t hold your breath Twins fans, as the earliest Liriano will return to the rotation is July 30th against the White Sox at the Dome. Why, you ask? The answer is two-fold, with explanations for both reasons, no matter how asinine they may seem.

First and foremost, the reason you will not see Francisco Liriano at the major league level prior July 30^th, is due to arbitration factors. At this season’s onset, Joe Christiansen, writer for the Minneapolis Star Tribune, touched on this issue, saying Liriano would qualify for arbitration because he would surpass the 2-year, 128 day threshold in terms of major league service. This was contingent on the idea that Liriano was going to stay with the team throughout the 2008 campaign and that did not materialize. As it stands today, there is no chance he would qualify under this arbitration clause.

Liriano could also be eligible for arbitration as a “Super-2” player, if he were to be with the major league ballclub for at least 86 days this season. The Franchise has at least 14 days of service this season, meaning the Twins could not recall him until July 21^st, in order to keep him under that level. Considering he would be scheduled to pitch on July 20^th for Rochester, the earliest he would pitch for the Twins is July 25^th in Cleveland. I have a hunch, however, that the organization would like for his initial start to come at home, against the Pale Hose.

Failing to recall Liriano until he was unable for to qualify for arbitration under the 2 year, 128 day or Super-2 clauses, would allow the Twins to keep Liriano’s salary under the $1,000,000 mark for 2009. I am no expert, but I have heard the Twins are cheap, so this is by far the real reason Liriano will not be called up until July 30th.

The other reason behind the lack of willingness to bring Liriano up from the minors is the potential of fatigue and/or re-injury to his left arm. Even though he is over 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Minnesota is going to be over cautious with Liriano. It’s hard to argue, as the Twins organization has done a bang-up job in developing their young pitchers and keeping them, in most cases, free from arm trouble. In addition, when he was healthy, the most innings thrown in a season by Liriano was 190.2 in 2005. His innings pitched currently sit at 112.2, which gives him no more than 10-14 starts remaining, as Minnesota is not likely to pitch him more than 200 innings. Considering what has happened to other oft-injured young pitchers (Mark Prior & A.J. Burnett to name two) when returning too quickly from arm problems, it should pay off for Liriano not to be over worked in his first full year following the injury.

With the team’s surprising performance thus far, there has been no pressure to hurry Liriano back to the big leagues. As the pennant race heats up, and Line Drive Livan continues to suck, this will undoubtedly change. Once it does, I suspect the Franchise will catch a July 29^th flight from Rochester to Minneapolis/St. Paul, just in time to kickstart the Twinkies for the stretch run.

Gators Love That Rape

Ex-University of Florida guard and all around stand up guy Teddy Dupay was arrested in Utah, of all places, on an impressive array of felonies including sexual assault and rape. Dupay's complete story is chronicled here, but the short version is that after being a catalyst on UF's 2000 title run, Dupay had an impressive fall from grace after being accused of gambling on games. Like most Florida students, Dupay failed to graduate, ended up working a shitty job, which in his case was a call center, and picked up the aforementioned felonies. As Colonel Cool has said on numerous occasions, rape is no laughing matter - unless you're raping a clown.

Dupay's rape charges wouldn't be extraordinary if not for his defense, specifically this quote:

According to court records, Dupay told investigators, "How can you rape someone you love?"

My tube socks wonder the same thing, Teddy.

Much thanks, Deadspin.

Shattered Dreams...

Without sounding too much like Bert Blyleven, I'm going to make a call:

The 18-5 loss to the Red Sox at Fenway on July 9th will be the beginning of the end for the 2008 Minnesota Twins.

A loss like this can do one of two things for a baseball team. One, the team rallies around such an embarrassment and proceeds to go on a winning tear, i.e. the 2006 Twins. Or, the team puts their tail between their legs and starts to quickly fall down in the standings.

Unfortunately, based on what we've seen from the Twins this year, and in today's game, I'm certain that the Twins will find themselves out of Wild Card contention come September 1.

One might argue that this Twins team has already shown some grittiness and determination, and have played above their ability to this point in the season. And I would agree with that sentiment. So what makes me think they can't continue to play stubborn baseball? Because of the law of averages thats why. A team playing above their heads for that long is destined to fall back to earth. Until the Red Sox series the Twins had been leading the league in hitting with RISP by over 40 points. They were 4 games above their expected win-loss record. They were heading for a letdown naturally. This game, and this series, will only serve to speed up the process.


Through six-and-a-half innings today, the Twins were typically hanging around close enough to win the ball game (it was 7-5 at that point). Then came the Span Trap. Umpire Charlie Reliford initially ruled the play a catch, and thus a triple play for the Twins, but it was clear to me watching the game on TV, that it was no where near a legitimate catch. Replays confirmed that the Twins centerfielder trapped the blooping liner off the bat of Varitek. As the Twins fielders came into the dugout thinking the inning was over, the umpires conferred and correctly overturned the original call and ruled the play as a single and a one-base advance for the two baserunners (one of which scored from third on the play). Gardenhire had to know the correct call was made, and by my interpretation, went out to argue in the attempt to jump start his club. Gardy came out guns ablazin' and was quickly ejected. He continued to rant, throwing his hat to the ground, and seemed to be making an obvious attempt to motivate the team.

But the Twins were cooked. They were not to be motivated. The floodgates opened and by the time they returned to the dugout they trailed in a 14-5 bloodbath. This is not the sign of a tough team. Their history up to this point in the season, and their "grab-my-ankles" attitude today, lead me to believe that this season is officially history.

RIP 2008 Minnesota Twins. It was fun while it lasted.

Real Men of Genius: Yankees Marketing Staff

In the most awesome promotion of the half-season, the Yankees today gave out 20,000 fake mustaches in hopes of encouraging fans to vote for Jason Giambi in the final man runoff. I have little to add other than (1) I haven't seen that fine of a mustache since Colonel Cool worked security at his neighbor's 13 year old daughter's birthday party, (2) Giambi's mustache actually makes me like him again, and (3) I will still not be voting for him as the final AL all star. But nice effort, Yankees.

Livan Hernandez blows sheep.

Do The Vikings Need Brett Favre To Win The 2008 Super Bowl?

In March, AJR26 so eloquently called shenanigans on Brett Favre and his then just-announced retirement from the NFL at 38 years old. And with all the recent rumblings about Favre’s desire to return to the game, and the Packers seemingly disinterested, I figured it was our duty to comment on the possibility of #4 wearing the Purple and Gold.

Disclaimer: I’m well aware of the pure speculation of him even playing again, let alone playing for a team not in north-eastern Wisconsin. And if the Packers were half-way intelligent, as they have almost always proven to be, they would never let Favre go to another team within the division.

Unlike most life-long Vikings fans, I have always admired watching Favre play the game. When he had the ball in his hands you never knew what might happen next, whether it be a 100 MPH slant through off his back foot through an opening in the defense the size of a drive-thru window or an interception on a jump ball thrown into quadruple-coverage. That was the beauty of Favre. He played with a fearlessness (read: stupidity) that if anything made him enjoyable to watch.

Six years ago when the Vikings went 6-10 and missed the playoffs with the pre-2004 Daunte Culpepper behind center, I would have happily taken Favre wearing the horned helmets. But now, there’s no way. No matter what some may believe, I do not feel that Favre is the right fit for the Vikings in 2008.

I’m not saying that Favre at 38 or 39 is not a good fit for the Panthers, Bucs, or Texans for example. Nor am I saying that Tarvaris Jackson is a better quarterback than Favre. But I do not think that considering the outlook for the upcoming Vikings season that they would be a good match for each other.

With the dominate running game the Vikings figure to have, all they need is a ball-control passing game that periodically launches a deep ball to Berrian in the hopes of catching the defense off-guard, or at the very least, put the fear of a bomb in the heads of the safeties. Despite his reputation as a strong-armed quarterback, Favre is not the kind of intelligent and patient guy the Vikings need controlling the path of the football on 3^rd and 8. Now, there’s no doubt that Tarvaris Jackson has failed to prove that he can be that intelligent and patient either. But, we know Favre will never change into that type of player. Ever. Even with the 2007 Packer team that developed a stout defense and a solid running game, he refused to play it safe and let others decide the outcome of the game. Exhibit A would be the first play of overtime in the NFC Championship game when Favre gambled and lost on the out route.

Jackson, however, remains a young, impressionable, and still developing quarterback. One, that with the right coaching, and about two seasons worth of maturity might be sufficient to let the Vikings defense and their running game win them the Super Bowl. Even if 2008 is not their year, then having Jackson develop for another year can only set them up better come 2009 and beyond. Having Favre here in ’08 only delays Jackson’s progress and avoids answering the question of whether or not he can be a legitimate starter in the NFL another year.

The Vikings don’t need Brett Favre to win the Lombardi Trophy. They need another mid-30’s quarterback to come out of retirement.

They need Trent Dilfer.

Dear Twins: CF Doesn't Have To Be A Black Hole

Approaching the All Star break, the Twins stand only 1.5 games back of the first place Chicago White Sox and 1.5 games behind the Wild Card leading Boston Red Sox, meaning they have a decision to make as to whether they should “go for it” and make a full-borne attempt to make the playoffs or continue with the long term plan and hope for the best with the current squad. I've already stated my view on the Twins and stand by that position. However, that position doesn't mean preclude believing the Twins can improve without mortgaging their future. As previously discussed, the easiest way to help the starting pitching is by jettisoning Livan and recalling Liriano; this should happen following the All-Star break, when the Super Two deadline presumably won’t be an issue. Judging by his past few starts, Liriano is ready. While he won’t return to his 2006 levels now, if ever, looking solely at internal options Francisco is the best way to improve the pitching. And improve the pitching he will.

Upgrading the offense is tougher. Replacement options at SS or 3B would result in a huge defensive decline accompanied by only a marginal offensive upgrade. Gardy could throw Jason Kubel into LF, but sitting Delmon Young won’t help score more runs since there aren’t any good options to DH if Kubel plays every day.

Once Michael Cuddyer returns to RF, an unpopular option that would likely result in immediate offensive improvement exists: benching Carlos Gomez. More specifically, platooning Carlos Gomez with Denard Span; Span would play versus RHP, while Gomez would face LHP.

I don’t have career minor league split numbers, and Gomez’s 2007 MLB results were too small of a sample size to derive any meaningful results. But here are their 2008 splits:

Gomez vs. LHP: .290/.320/.419/.739

Gomez vs. RHP: .258/.295/.352/.647

Span vs. LHP (AAA): .170/.240/.239/.479

Span vs. RHP (AAA): .409/.508/.582/1.089

Gomez has been passable against LHP and awful against RHP. Meanwhile, in AAA Span destroyed RHP but couldn’t do anything against LHP. Yes, in his few MLB ABs Denard’s been, like, bizarro-Span, as he’s mashed LHP but struggled against RHP. But those results are dubious because of the sample size issues.

Granted, benching Gomez might harm his development even more than looking foolish at the plate on a weekly basis. But if the Twins want to win now, they need to upgrade in any way possible, and using Gomez and Span as platoon partners would improve the Twins offense while likely not costing them defensively. Do I expect Gardy to use them this way? Hell no. The organization is committed to Gomez, for better or worse. Still, platooning Gomez and Span is the easiest way for the Twins to help their offense without trading prospects for players outside the organization.

The Best Pitcher You've Never Heard Of: Ricky Nolasco

This past week hasn’t been good to the Florida Marlins and their fans. Take Friday night, and me, for example. One minute I was watching the Marlins jump out to leads of 5-0 (1^st inning), 7-1 (3^rd inning), and 13-4 (4^th inning). Within an hour I walked into a party and the game was 13-12. I still have no idea what exactly happened. Then, after spending about 20 minutes at the party where I knew few people, observing multiple partygoers stepping into the bathroom for 30 seconds and coming out noticeably excited, being thoroughly sketched out with half the party being early 20’s people and the other half being people in their 40’s-50’s accompanied by ladies 20 years younger, I decided to ask what was the fucking deal. My friend informed me that it was her friend’s father’s house, that he was kinda into drugs, and that all the older guys were his dealers and their girlfriends. They started shooting fireworks at each other and the cars driving down the street. I felt extremely comfortable.Later, the Marlins managed to blow a 13-4 (and later, 17-12) lead and fall in a walk-off, 18-17 loss. Needless to say, I departed shortly thereafter and spent the remainder of the evening in a drunken stupor. One bar rejected me for not wearing sleeves (my D-Wade USA jersey and American flag bandana weren’t appropriate attire), so I walked a mile to buy an extra small bright yellow shirt. Fuck those assholes. You think you can keep me from looking like a complete dipshit while drinking in your bar? Wrong.

So yeah, the Marlins haven’t been playing well. Still, they sit only 1.5 games out of first place and get Josh Johnson back this week, have called up Chris Volstad to replace poster boy Mark Hendrickson, and expect Anibal Sanchez to return by August 3. If they can find a catcher and some bullpen arms, and the rest of the division keeps inhaling cock like GldnKnight inhales mini-donuts (one day, the fat jokes will stop), they might have a chance. Or not. I still see them winning about 80 games, give or take 3.

But one of the only reasons the Marlins are in position to be considered contenders is the performance of de facto staff ace Ricky Nolasco. Ricky came to Florida, along with solid LH reliever Renyel Pinto and back of the rotation starter/long reliever Sergio Mitre, in the 2005 Juan Pierre deal. Give Jim Hendry another round of applause.

Ricky throws a good fastball that sits in the low-mid 90’s, a 12-6 curveball (last night on the Padres broadcast Tony Gwynn called it a striker or something like that), and a changeup. His fastball and curveball are excellent and led many to believe that he was, at worst, a valuable set-up guy/closer with the potential to develop into a back of the rotation starter. But the thought was that unless he added a quality third pitch, he’d probably end up in the bullpen; Ricky was known as a control/command guy in the minors, i.e. someone who wouldn’t walk people but might not be any more than a reliever in the majors due to his two pitch repertoire. He had an excellent 2005 at AA, throwing 161.2 innings with a 2.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 173 K/46 BB. The Marlins promoted him to the majors in 2006.

Nolasco had a solid 2006 rookie year but missed most of 2007 due to a throwing arm injury. Coming into 2008, Ricky was expected to start the year in the bullpen and potentially later move to the rotation. He was added to the rotation early in the year after Rick Vanden Hurk, to put it kindly, struggled. Nolasco started the year out slowly, but he’s turned it on his last six starts.

VS. Phi: 6 IP, 4 H, O ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 HR

@ TB: 8.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 12 K, 1 BB, 1 HR

@ Oak: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

VS. Ari: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB

VS. Was: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB

@ SD: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, 1 HR

He even managed to get the win last night, since Kevin Gregg quit being a cumguzzling douchefuck incapable of protecting a lead.

Ricky’s 2008 success is partially attributable to adding a quality cutter and splitter. Now Nolasco’s 2008 performance is a deviation from his past MLB stints, and might be viewed as an unsustainable run of success, but it’s not out of line with his minor league numbers. His velocity has returned to its pre-injury rates. Ricky’s getting roughly the same amount of line drives, groundballs, and flyballs as in the past, and his BABIP and HR/FB aren’t out of whack with his previous numbers. He’s throwing his cutter more instead of his changeup, which is probably a primary reason for his increased success. Provided he can continue commanding his new pitches, he should keep throwing well, although lefties still hit him hard.

I’d be hard pressed to expect Nolasco to blossom into an ace; the way he’s currently pitching is his peak, and I don’t think he’ll consistently put up these strikeout numbers. But with his improvement, the Marlins have a good #2/average #1 guy. Whether that’s enough to right the pitching staff and propel them into the playoffs is entirely another matter.

One You’ll Tell Your Kids About

413 Points
3 Rain Delays
62 Games
2 Tiebreakers
149 Winners
288 Minutes
5 Sets
One Champion

In the end, that is often simultaneously the downfall and beauty of sports. There is always only one champion. Tennis is possibly the cruelest of these games, as the brilliance of one person, a single opponent, often surpasses one’s self brilliance. Sunday at the All England Tennis Club, was such an example.

Rafael Nadal ended Roger Federer’s five-year reign as champion at Wimbledon, winning an incredible 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-7 (8), 9-7 match, which when it ended nearly made me cry. I tried to write this column last evening like others, but I couldn’t. I couldn’t explain what I felt or why I felt it. I wasn’t overjoyed for Rafa or devastated for Federer, but I felt empty. Empty because in tennis, you do not have teammates to pick you up or conditions to battle through. It is just one man to defeat and if you are not good enough, you lose. With these two greats, the difference was oh-so-slim in favor of Nadal, and Federer was a loser for the first time in the last 65 matches on grass.

Today, I realized that as a lifelong tennis player and fan, I merely wanted this beautiful display of athleticism, strategy, and skill to carry on forever. My empty sensation was likely a product of the realization that I had watched the greatest tennis match of my existence.

Just how good was this match? Let’s take a closer look at the stats and the overall quality of play throughout the contest.

At 4 hours and 48 minutes, it was the longest final in Wimbledon history. Very few tests of mental or physical endurance can compare, with running a marathon or 90 holes of golf with a torn ACL on my shortlist. Couple that with three rain delays totaling over two and a half hours, and these men were in a physical and mental championship mode for at least seven hours. That is seven hours of focus, strategy, stretching and staying loose.

With 149 total winners, compared to just 79 unforced errors, these two players were engaging in a level of tennis that few can ever reach, but all can appreciate. Typically, in such a grueling match, the level of play has many stretches of poor play, errors and at times boring competition. The amount of scrambling, lengthy volleys, and adjustments by Nadal and Federer, made for entertainment that was unparalleled in my time as a tennis fan.

In addition, during clutch situations, Nadal and Federer pulled out some of their best tennis, with passing shots, aces and outright winners peppering the court. My fondest memory, featured in the link above, is the sequence in the fourth set tiebreaker. At Nadal’s initial championship point (7-6), Federer pulls out a blistering ace to even the score at 7. Then, Rafa blisters an amazing forehand passing shot down the line past Federer. Roger, not to be outdone, hits his best backhand of the match, a pass down the line, past a charging Nadal, to stave off another match point. This is the stuff that only the best players, in the most clutch situations, can bring out of each other.

Without question, the most astounding stat of this epic battle is the amount of points won: Nadal 209, Federer 204. Five points separated these two champions after five sets and nearly five hours of play. Heading into the fourth set, Rafa and Roger were dead even in points won at 151. Anything short of a legendary fifth set would have been a travesty, and these two kept ripping great shot after great shot until Rafa fell to the ground in the darkness of a London night.

The best match of all time, indeed.

Happy Independence Day!

I am out until Monday, so dmk and GldnKnight will have to hold down the fort.

If everything works out, you mustn't miss Breakfast at Wimbledon:
Federer vs. Nadal - This time on grass.....yummmm Strawberries and Cream.