Last Week’s Results: America’s? Vote: #2 Florida vs. #7 Penn State Florida 100% #3 Texas vs. #6 Utah Texas 100%
REMEMBER TO VOTE IN THE SIDE BAR FOR WHO YOU THINK ADVANCES!!!!!
After two weeks and a whopping 11 votes by the same five or six people, IHS College Football playoff rolls into the semifinals. In the penultimate round, top-ranked Oklahoma takes on Southern Cal, while the Gators of Florida battle the Longhorns of Texas in the other contest. Even though I believe Alabama would have just enough to edge USC in the quarters, “America” thought otherwise and put the Trojans ahead to round two. All of the other semifinalists were unanimous winners in the minds of the pollsters.
(Note: If you are new to this sports blog, please read here, here, here, or here to better understand the system and past results.)
#1 Oklahoma (13-1) vs. #5 USC (12-1) At Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Two teams that squared off in the 2005 National Championship game in Miami, the Sooners and Trojans meet again in the first semifinal. For the Sooners, it will be a hefty challenge to continue to put up silly offensive numbers against what is one of the best defenses in the last 20 years of college football. Then again, with Oklahoma scoring 60+ points in five consecutive games coming into the tournament, maybe the challenge will be tougher for the Trojans.
The Trojans had their undefeated campaign derailed once again due to an early season upset at the hands of a Pac-10 foe or they could have easily been seeded number one in the tournament. Needless to say, Southern Cal’s success begins and ends with their defense. Even though they lost defensive tackle Cedric Ellis and linebacker Keith Rivers to the NFL following last season’s impressive defensive performance, Pete Carroll’s “D” unit is still shutting offenses down at a surreal pace. The Trojans have allowed just 7.8 points and 206.1 yards per game and 11 total touchdowns during the 2008 season. Maybe the most impressive statistic, however, is the measly 3.38 yards per play that USC has allowed to its opponents. All of the aforementioned defensive stats are top in Division I-A.
For the Sooners to be successful, they will have to turn this game into a track meet. They rank third in the country in total yards per game at 562.1 and are the best in scoring O with 54 points a contest. I suspect the Bob Stoops and his offensive coordinators, Kevin Wilson and Jay Norvell will run multiple personel packages and formations to try and confuse the Trojans D. Also, a change of pace with between no-huddle (the Sooners primary tempo) and huddle will also help to get USC off balance. In the end, if the Sooners cannot eclipse at least half of their average offensive outputs (281 yards and 27 points), I do not see them advancing to the National Championship.
I know I did not have USC defeating Alabama in the last round. But I truly thought whoever won that game would have the inside track to the national title game because of their respective defenses. After all, offense sells tickets, defense wins championships. Trojans get it done.
Trojans 24 Sooners 20
#2 Florida (13-1) vs. #3 Texas (12-1) At Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
The Gators and Longhorns will do battle at the Granddaddy of them all, in what could have been a BCS national championship preview if Texas had not been bypassed by Oklahoma. On paper, this game should be a track meet, as both teams have offenses that rank in the top five in the country in scoring average at over 43 points a game. Both teams also possess veteran quarterbacks, who are capable of leading their teams in clutch situations. Finally, both teams have experienced and innovative coaching staffs whose leaders have won two of the last three national titles. This Rose Bowl has a chance to be a historic contest, which will be decided in the waning seconds, but in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.”
The striking difference between these two schools is the defensive performance of each team. The Gators rank ninth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense, while the Longhorns are 50th and 20th in those categories. Both teams played in a great conference, but obviously the Big 12 is known for its offenses and the SEC is known for its defenses. I’ll take the top teams of the SEC (Bama, Florida) over the top teams of the Big 12 (OU, Texas) solely for this reason.
For a team that a friend and rabid Texas fan classified as “8-4, 9-3 at best”, prior to the season’s start, I do not think this team will hang with the Gators for all four quarters. The only way I see Texas winning this game is with a multiple turnover and mistake prone game from Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gator offense. They would have to play at least two quarters like they did against Ole Miss to falter against the Longhorns.
Because they have home field advantage in the weaker NFC, the Giants should be considered the Super Bowl favorite. Their path to the Super Bowl is easier than the AFC squads, and New York is probably the NFC’s best team.
Also, Eli Manning admittedly won’t be spending his bye week in Cabo.
Pittsburgh and Baltimore have far and away the best defenses in the AFC. Philadelphia and Minnesota are far and away the best in the NFC.
Carolina’s rush defense costs them a victory at some point. Probably in New York for the NFC title game. But Carolina’s poor rush defense makes them a decent pick to be upset in the second round if they get Minnesota or Atlanta, because those two teams can exploit the Panthers’ weakness defending the run.
Carolina also has one of the NFL’s least consistent offenses, which can’t be a good sign. Meanwhile, Indy’s offense is consistently good. But it’s their passing offense which is consistently good; if they go to Tennessee or Pittsburgh and play in the slop, they’re going to struggle.
I would NOT go anywhere near Pittsburgh unless I was sure Roethlisberger was healthy. That team isn’t winning the AFC with Leftwich at QB. The offense is poor enough with Ben at QB; the defense won’t be able to make up for Leftwich for two games. One, maybe, especially if it’s a home game against Miami.
Baltimore is a great sleeper bet; the Ravens are one of the top 3 teams in the NFL according to DVOA and get a very favorable first round matchup. While asking a rookie QB to win three playoff games on the road is probably too much, it’s not inconceivable. If Baltimore gets past Miami, as they should, the Ravens defense could absolutely carry them to something like a 13-10 victory over the Titans by forcing Kerry Collins into a few turnovers and getting just enough out of Flacco and the Ravens running game. Then, if Roethlisberger isn’t fully healthy, Baltimore could take out the Steelers. It’s not likely, but for the money (15-1) it’s a decent bet.
Along those lines, San Diego and Atlanta are worth taking flyers on as well. San Diego remains a very talented team whose biggest weakness (subpar secondary) could be masked if they play in bad weather games in Pittsburgh or Tennessee that makes throwing difficult. Plus, did you know that Norv Turner is 9-0 in December as the Chargers coach? (HT: MJD). Yeah. He does. Then again, unless LT is fully healthy, the Chargers could have trouble moving the ball in poor conditions.
Atlanta also works as a sleeper because they have a winnable first round game and could have a decent formula (strong running game, explosive WR in Roddy White, smart, accurate QB) for scoring enough on the Giants' defense to win in the second round.
I don’t think Minnesota gets a win this Sunday, but those are awfully poor odds for a #3 seed in the weak NFC. Even if they have T-Jack at QB. The Vikings are nowhere near the NFC’s best team, but if some crazy shit happens (Vikings victory over the Eagles, Falcons second round win @ NY coupled with MIN win @ CAR) the Vikes could be in a decent position to win the NFC.
Then again, I think the Vikes lose by at least two touchdowns this Sunday. That Eagles team seems quite capable of a Giants-like run. Still, for the money, they aren’t a great bet because they’re guaranteed three road playoff games. Plus, Andy Reid is still capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Eventually, Pittsburgh’s special teams are going to cost them a game. As are the Vikings and Dolphins. All three teams have atrocious special teams. In the case of Minnesota, coupling poor special teams with a subpar pass and rush offense (when adjusted for opponent) doesn’t help one believe the Vikes can pull out a victory.
I have only been a consistent gambler for the last five years. I caught the fever during the 2005 NFL Playoffs, in which I won a nice chunk of change to supplement my collegiate drinking habits. Thus, I have never seen a wild card weekend where every home team is the underdog, until this season.
ARIZONA (+2.5) vs. Atlanta SAN DIEGO (+1) vs. Indianapolis MIAMI (+3) vs. Baltimore MINNESOTA (+3) vs. Philadelphia
I'll monitor these lines throughout the week, but mark my words: At least one of the home teams will win this wild card weekend, with at least one other team possibly covering.
Ah, yes. I’m back. What’s happened in the NFL during the interminable few weeks since I’ve been gone?
Tarvaris Jackson was good, then great, then kinda ok but still turnover prone. As a result, the Vikings are still an above average yet far from great team.
Tennessee cemented its place as the #1 seed despite playing without their most valuable player. Still, does anyone see them representing the AFC in Tampa?
Dallas looked like the team nobody wanted to face in January, then collapsed.
Philadelphia did the same.
So did Tampa. As a result, one of Philly or Dallas can still make the playoffs with a win on Sunday. Tampa has an outside shot as well.
Arizona…well, they may be double digit home underdogs against Atlanta in the Wild Card round.
Speaking of Atlanta: the Atlanta Falcons, led by a rookie QB who doesn’t murder puppies but does have the personality of a shoebox, are playoff bound. On Sunday, if Carolina loses and Atlanta wins, the Falcons get the #2 seed and a first round bye. Hol. Y. Shit. Balls.
Nobody wants to win the AFC East. Or the AFC West. It’s looking like Marmalard and Co. will host a first round game against Indianapolis, while Miami will host Baltimore. There’s a decent chance San Diego and, to a lesser extent, Miami will be at least a one touchdown underdog at home. In the playoffs.
The Lions press on towards 0-16, yet their coach is suddenly a sympathetic character. Because most newspaper reporters are fucksticks, you see.
Still, Lions fans shouldn’t feel completely hopeless. If the turnarounds in Miami and Atlanta prove anything, it’s that if you have a competent front office and coaching staff, your fortunes CAN turn around in just one year. Of course, the Lions assembling a competent front office and coaching staff isn’t exactly a given. But it’s possible. I suppose.
Dick Jauron got a motherfucking contract extension despite going 1-7 between early October and the time he signed the contract in mid-December.
And with that, everything has been covered heading into the Week 17 games. A few games exist that have absolutely no postseason implications, either because the teams are eliminated from playoff contention or the teams cannot improve their playoff standing. As such, these games will not be covered extensively. I was considering writing a long ass whimsical post instead of actually talking about these games, but I’m saving that for a later point in time.
So, the meaningless games:
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Cincinnati
I’m not sure how to subtlely address this…but HOLY FUCK THERES A NEW TERMINATOR MOVIE COMING OUT IN MAY
I don't give a shit if Arnold's not in it. That movie will fucking rule.
Seattle (+6) over ARIZONA
Christmas Eve night I went to see The Day The Earth Stood Still with my Mom. I only saw this meh-fest because Bolt wasn’t playing at any normal times and Frost/Nixon had yet to be released. If you need a way to kill two hours, The Day The Earth Stood Still isn’t a bad way to do it. It’s the rare movie where Keanu Reeves’ complete lack of any human personality skills plays to his advantage in portraying his character. Still, there are better ways to waste your time.
Tennesse (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS
On a fun note: a bunch of little chain restaurants surrounded the movie theatre in Silver Spring, which was where I saw The Day The Earth Stood Still. One of these restaurants was Red Lobster, which led my Mom, of all fucking people, to drop the “Hey Shooter, wanna go to Red Lobster?” line as we were walking in.
This should be proof that if you ARE a big enough fuck up as a son, you can turn your parents into fuck ups as well.
Now let’s get to all the games that have some semblance of meaning.
Detroit (+9.5) over GREEN BAY
Nothing would better cap Detroit’s season than if they led Green Bay most of the way but lost on some kind of fluky play late in the fourth quarter. After all, they’ve already had multiple games turn on interception and fumble returns, and they even had a QB run out of the back of his own goddamn endzone. If Detroit can somehow lose this game because the snap goes over the punter’s head and Green Bay recovers to score the winning touchdown, that’d be pretty perfect.
While the Packers are clearly more talented, this is a game the Lions should be able to keep close throughout. The only question for Green Bay is if they’re motivated; provided they don’t completely mail in this effort, they’ll win. The possible embarrassment of being Detroit’s only victory should give Green Bay enough motivation to show up. But the same looming 0-16 possibility makes Detroit feisty enough to cover.
TAMPA BAY (-12.5) over Oakland
Tampa needs a lot of help to make the playoffs. But they can still make it. Somehow. That, combined with Jon Gruden’s hate of all things Oakland, leads to the belief Tampa covers. Well, that and the fact they’re a much better team. Jamarcus Russell’s recent improvement doesn’t make me believe he can cover away from home against a defense as good as Tampa’s.
PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) over Dallas
Philadelphia is probably a better team, especially at home. This is another game that – like the Detroit-Green Bay game – should be won by the more talented home team. Since both teams still harbor legitimate playoff hopes, motivation isn’t a factor. If you trust Wade Phillips to outcoach Andy Reid, feel free to wager on Dallas. Otherwise, take the Eagles. While Andy Reid isn’t a genius, he can outcoach the puffy jacket.
NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5) over Minnesota
This is assuming New York plays the majority of their regulars. If Justin Tuck, Brandon Jacobs, and Eli Manning all sit this game out, I’ll take the Vikings.
While the Vikes’ run defense should fare better than Carolina’s did, the Giants should still move the ball on the ground quite a bit. And they have the pass rush to disrupt Tarvaris without bringing extra rushers. That’s enough for them to cover, if not win outright.
CHICAGO (+3) over Houston
Orton on the road is always a bad call. But after the way Houston shit the bed last weekend in Oakland, it’s tough to put money on the Texans against a Bears team that still can win the NFC North with a win and a Vikings loss. Considering Brad Childress still coaches the Vikings, that’s not an unbelieveable scenario.
Houston has the talent to win this game. With Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Walter, the Texans can score plenty of points. Still, if Chicago manages to control the clock with Matt Forte, they should pull this game out. Houston’s run defense is bad enough for Forte to put up 125+ yards and keep the ball out of the Texans offense’s hands long enough for Chicago to escape with a win.
Carolina (-3) over NEW ORLEANS
Carolina gets the 2 seed with a win, and the Panthers should be able to rely on their running game for a win here. But New Orleans does have something to play for: with 401 yards, Drew Brees breaks Dan Marino’s single season passing yardage mark. For viewing entertainment purposes, let’s hope Sean Payton doesn’t even call a running play the entire game.
ATLANTA (-14) over St. Louis
To repeat: with a Carolina loss and an Atlanta win, Matt fucking Ryan will have a chance to be only the third rookie to ever win a playoff game. The first two were Ben Roethlisberger and….Shaun King. As Will Leitch reminded us on Tuesday, King was a Ricky Proehl miracle catch from leading Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl.
When you think about it, that’s pretty fucking incredible and inexplicable. Sorta like Bill Callahan leading a team to the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville (+12.5) over Baltimore
Baltimore needs a win in order to clinch a playoff berth over New England. They’ll run through the Jaguars, but not by a large enough margin to cover.
After Baltimore wins, they’ll head to Miami for what should be the most competitive game of the Wild Card round. I’m of the belief that if Baltimore can escape Miami with a win, they’ll pose a huge challenge to Tennesse. If Joe Flacco can avoid turnovers and make 2-3 big third down throws, the Ravens can win that game.Watching Kerry Collins melt down against another stiff Baltimore defense will be fun. Hopefully Kerry sends along another letter of protest.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh needs a victory to clinch the #2 seed – I think - so they have something to play for. But they’ve looked like shit lately. Still, Cleveland is probably starting their 4th string QB. Against the Steelerdefense, that’s enough for Pittsburgh to cover.
Miami (+2.5) over N.Y. JETS
Miami wins this game, and the AFC East, because of the recent strong decline of New York’s run defense. Not coincidentally, Kris Jenkins has been injured and, in general, lost effectiveness. Without that run defense, Miami should control the clock with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Miami wins this game by a touchdown, at least. It should be a good one.
Mangini is given one more year, but Favre finally, mercifully, retires after another subpar performance. Meanwhile, the QB New York dumped for Favre leads his team to a division title. If this weren’t the fucking Dolphins winning, it’d be an awesome story.
BUFFALO (+6.5) over New England
New England needs a win and either a Baltimore loss or a Miami loss in order to make the playoffs. And while Buffalo won’t win - especially if Beast Mode is on the shelf - they’ll have enough juice to keep this game closer than the line.
And when the other games play out in a manner that has New England missing the playoffs with 11 wins, Tommy’s girlfriend, like many other Massachusetts area girlfriends, is going to show up at work on Monday with the brand new Christmas gift of a black eye. Then again, going by the reasoning of most Boston men, their white women going out in public with a black eye isn’t the worst thing. After all, they could be appearing in public with a black guy.
LASERFACE (-8) over Cutlerfucker
The game of the week, if for no other reason than a playoff berth if guaranteed to the winner while the loser is out. And really, watching Rivers and Cutler “battling” to a combined point total over 80 should be entertaining. Although, I have to say: if MJD’s suggestion of having Ed Hochuli referee this game had been imposed, it would have made the game even more fun.
Nevertheless, San Diego-Denver will be entertaining football with good quarterback play. But that’s about it. Expect Denver to throw the ball fairly successfully on San Diego’s poor pass defense, but a few untimely turnovers will cost them. Cutler’s still prone to poor decisions, and with Tatum Bell and Cory Boyd in the backfield Shanny can’t fall back on the running game. Rivers should put up some huge numbers on Denver’s pass defense. Shit, if Trent Edwards and the Bills can successfully throw the ball on Denver, anyone can. Phillip’s effort will be enough to cover, meaning we’ll have the possibility of him yelling at more fans during a playoff game. That’s fun for the whole family.
And a final question: if Denver loses this game and completes their collapse, doesn’t Mike Shanahan have to be on the hot seat?
REMEMBER TO VOTE IN THE SIDE BAR FOR WHO YOU THINK ADVANCES!!!!!
#2 Florida (12-1) vs. #7 Penn State (11-1) At Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, LA
As I stated in the preview of the SEC Championship game, if it weren’t for two bad quarters against Mississippi, the Gators would be undefeated and ranked #1. They have stormed through one of the best conferences in college football, being challenged only by the Rebels and #4 Alabama en route to their 12-1 record. Likewise, Penn State is one Iowa interception of Daryll Clark away from being undefeated and ranked #2. The Nittany Lions were juggernauts of pathetic Big Ten, as they were challenged only by the Hawkeyes and #10 Ohio State throughout the year. So the fact that these tradition-rich schools would hypothetically meet in the quarterfinals of the 2008 tournament could be considered a travesty. Until you look deeper inside this matchup.
The Gators are averaging over 49 points per game during their current nine-game winning streak. Seven of those nine victories have come over bowl-eligible squads, including five over opponents ranked in the top-25. Needless to say, Florida has not been playing a bunch of slouches (except for Citadel) in the last two months, and they have been demolishing their opponents. Tim Tebow and the spread offense get most of the publicity for this team, but do not overlook the tough Gator defensive unit. For the season, Florida’s defense is allowing less than 13 points per game. They passed their stiffest test to date at the Georgia Dome, where a physical Alabama squad moved up and down the field for the first three quarters of the game. But in the fourth quarter the speedy Gators’ D, led by Junior linebacker Brandon Spikes, tightened up and allowed just three total yards in the game-deciding period. This experience will only aid their evolution into one of college football’s best defense and should cause numerous problems for the Nittany Lions.
Penn State’s defense has been equally as impressive as the Gators, allowing just 12.4 points per game. Allowing just 2.9 yards per carry to opponent’s rushing attacks, Joe Pa’s fellas will have to perform equal to or better against the option to limit Florida’s effectiveness on the ground. The only chance that Penn State could have to win this contest is if they can force Florida into some early turnovers. If they can do that, and grab a lead heading into halftime, then anything could happen in the second half of a close ballgame. This task will be easier said than done for Penn State.
To think that the Nittany Lions, even with their underrated and extremely talented defense, has any chance of staying with the Gators, would be nothing short of a dream. Urban Meyer’s Florida squad is stacked, and even though they would be playing without the services of Percy Harvin and at least two defensive starters, I still think this game would be over early in the second half.
Gators 38 Nittany Lions 21
#3 Texas (11-1) vs. #6 Utah (12-0) At Holiday Bowl, San Diego, CA
Do not overlook this Utes team against the Longhorns, as they could pose major problems for the boys from Austin. Utah has three very impressive wins this season over Oregon State, TCU and BYU. Granted, all three of those victories came at home, but I have a feeling head coach Kyle Wittingham will take the approach that this team is getting no respect from the national media. Remember, the Utes won a BCS game in 2004 enroute to an undefeated season, becoming the first non-BCS conference school to do so.
Texas will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, that being the fact they were snubbed from the Big-12 title game. In a playoff format, however, the only difference for the Longhorns would probably be the seeding. They would have likely flipped spots with Oklahoma had they won the Big-12 conference title, becoming the tournament's #1 seed.
Neither of these schools have a particular strength or weakness, as they are just well-coached, balanced football teams across the board. The matchup to watch will be at the quarterback position, as Texas’s Colt McCoy and Utah’s Brian Johnson will do battle. McCoy has solidified his position as one of the top quarterbacks in college football this season, throwing for over 3,400 yards and 32 touchdowns, while running in ten more scores. The most impressive stat, however, might be his 77.6 completion percentage ratio. That is the best in all of the land. In addition, his emergence as a duel-threat quarterback is extremely surprising, considering during his first season in Texas in 2006, he ran for just 170 yards and two scores. Over the past two years, however, McCoy has rushed for 1068 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Utah’s Johnson, on the other hand, has developed into more of a pocket passer throughout his years in Salt Lake City. In his first full season as a starter, Johnson ran for almost 500 yards and eight touchdowns. Since then, in 2007 and 2008, the senior has run for just 294 yards, averaging 1.6 yards per carry. After undergoing a season of transformation last season, Johnson has blossomed through the air, tossing a career-high 24 touchdown passes and completing over 68 percent of his passes this year.
In Texas’s marquee victory over the Sooners earlier this year, the Longhorns’ defense held OU’s running game to a mere 48 yards on 26 attempts. This will be the key to the game as I believe Utah will only spring an upset if they are able to maintain balance on offense. I think this contest would be on par with Alabama-Southern Cal for the best of the quarterfinal games. In the end, I believe Colt McCoy and his Longhorns will live to fight another day, winning a barnburner with Utah.
Longhorns 35 Utes 27
Next Week: Semifinal #1: #1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Alabama Semifinal #2: #2 Florida vs. #3 Texas
Merry Christmas and safe travels to all in the upcoming days!
If you were living with the !Kung people in Africa and had never seen Professional Football until today, Week 16 was a good introduction.
Culminating with tonight's slugfest at the Meadowlands, won by the Giants in overtime, this week provided everything a fan could ask for in terms of December football.
As far as the Purple are concerned, it was a case of fumbleitous which stimied Viking drives and also gave a quality opponent great scoring chances of their own. Thus, the Vikings still need a victory over the Giants next Sunday, or a Chicago loss in either of their last two contests to secure a NFC North crown.
With one week to go in the 2008 season, here is how I would rank the current playoff contenders:
NFC: 1.) New York Giants 2.) Carolina Panthers 3.) Atlanta Falcons 4.) Minnesota Vikings 5.) Dallas Cowboys 6.) Arizona Cardinals
AFC: 1.) Tennessee Titans 2.) Pittsburgh Steelers 3.) Baltimore Ravens 4.) Indianapolis Colts 5.) New England Patriots 6.) San Diego Chargers
I forgot to enter the inaugural Icy-Hot Bowl Challenge. Considering I won our own pickem last season, and failed to get paid for it, I guess it does not really bother me.
Just know I have already bet on Florida -3.5 to win the national title on January 8th.
For fun, let’s say money did not control College Football and there would be an eight team playoff to decide the National Champion. This type of system has been outlined and exemplified here and a 16-game version here. Also, let’s say the bowl game system was slightly modified where you had the seven playoff games rotating between seven sites each year. The other bowls would operate similar to modes of the current system, except for the money would likely dry up for a few bowls, due to their irrelevance. This is not a bad thing, because games like the “Golden Shower Bowl presented by Icy-Hot Sensations,” will be forced to fold.
(If you have not read dmk or my ideas and opinions about a playoff and its format, then some of the teams and/or rules might be different than you imagine…just go with it.)
For geographic balance, let’s assume the Holiday and Cotton Bowls decided they wanted some hot, sweaty playoff action. These bowls would then join the four current BCS bowls and the BCS title game to form the seven-game playoff. These games would then rotate between the different sites, with each bowl game also getting the title game once every seven seasons. For 2008, the matchups and subsequent rounds to which we would be treated in eight team playoff, are listed below:
Qtr Final 1: #1 Oklahoma vs. #8 Boise State (Cotton Bowl)
Qtr Final 2: #4 Alabama vs. #5 USC (Orange Bowl)
Qtr Final 3: #2 Florida vs. #7 Penn State (Sugar Bowl)
Qtr Final 4: #3 Texas vs. #6 Utah (Holiday Bowl)
Semi Final 1: Winner QF 1 vs. Winner QF 2 (Fiesta Bowl) Semi Final 2: Winner QF 3 vs. Winner QF 4 (Rose Bowl)
National Championship at Miami: Semi Final 1 vs. Semi Final 2
I am going to try and post these previews/predictions (along with a side bar poll) with some kind of regularity. To make it easier on me, I will post the quarterfinal games two at a time, with the next column coming on either Tuesday or Wednesday. This way, with my busy work schedule and the holidays, I do not become a floozy and stop doing a continuous column. Thus, please remember to vote in the poll and also comment on my thoughts about these hypothetical battles. The more dialogue the merrier.
Without further ado…
#1 Oklahoma (12-1) versus #8 Boise State (13-0) At Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
The first quarterfinal matchup would be a rematch of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl in which undefeated Boise State upset Oklahoma 43-42. That is undoubtedly the contest that put non-power conferences on the map in terms of BCS legitimacy. Whether that’s a good thing or not remains to be seen. From their relinquishing of a 28-10 third quarter advantage, to their successful hook-and-ladder play to tie the game, the Broncos played the part of a Cinderella quite well. The problem is that this time around, Boise State will be even more of an underdog against the streaking Sooners.
Needless to say, the hype surrounding this game would be excessive. With the history between these two teams and both squads coming in undefeated, I think many people could foresee Boise State pulling another shocker. When you give a closer look, that Oklahoma team, outside of Adrian Peterson, was not all that impressive of a roster. Thus, I think Bob Stoops knew his team was not all that talented, and that they were in for a tough contest with Boise State.
That is not the case this season. The Sooners, which are in search of the school’s eighth national title, are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Quarterback and reigning Heisman winner Sam Bradford, has put up video game like numbers since losing to Texas, directing the offense to 60 points in five consecutive games. Never had that been done in college football history and it is not likely that the Broncos will have any answers for the skill players that OU puts on the field.
Contrary to previous seasons, Boise State has also played a cupcake schedule, especially when compared to the other teams in these playoffs. Wins over Oregon and Fresno State are the only two games that are comparable to the week-in-week-out grind of the SEC and Big 12 in 2008. Running back Ian Johnson, hero/protagonist of the 2007 upset when he proposed to his girlfriend immediately following the win, is now splitting carries in the backfield with Jeremy Avery. The Broncos’ quarterback is freshman Kellen Moore, who has ranked in the top 15 in passing all season. On paper, the weapons are definitely there for the Broncos to light up the scoreboard. Defensively, the Broncos have allowed more than 16 points just two times all year, which could also spell trouble for the Sooner offense….in the first half.
I believe when it’s all said and done, this game would turn into a blowout early in the late stages of the third or early parts of the fourth quarter.
#1 Oklahoma 45 #8 Boise State 23
#4 Alabama versus #5 USC At Orange Bowl, Miami, FL
This game shapes up to be quite the hootenanny, as the Tide and Trojans would hook up in the best contest of the quarterfinals. I thought long and hard about this game and who I could see coming out on top, and quite frankly I still do not know. What I can predict, however, is that this game will be low-scoring slugfest with neither team’s offense ever finding a rhythm due to the stellar defensive units that Nick Saban and Pete Carroll possess. This game features two contrasting styles of play, with Alabama’s physicality and Southern California’s speed and finesse. The Tide, who have become a national power much quicker than expected, have at least five future NFL lineman, three on offense and two on defense (provided Terrence Cody loses 30 pounds prior to next season). USC counters with immaculate speed on both sides of the ball led by household names and future NFLer’s like Maualuga, Mays, McKnight, and Cushing.
When you breakdown the potential matchup, it could largely be decided by which team could disrupt the tempo of the opposing offense. The Tide have started extremely fast in the games this season, outscoring their opponents 130-27 in the first quarter. This has allowed them to play with a lead and use their running game to wear down opponents. In Alabama’s 31-20 loss to Florida, the Tide was following that same script to wear down the Gators, but then the Alabama offense was disrupted and forced out of their physical, methodical style in the fourth quarter. The result was a net gain of just three total yards and zero points for the Tide, who entered the final stanza leading by three. I do not believe the USC defense would have any trouble slowing the ‘Bama attach for a majority of the game, until the fourth quarter.
On the other side, USC’s offense has been non-existent for all of 2008. In fact, this is one of the worst offensive groups Southern California has had this decade. Other than explosions against the Division II teams in Washington, Mark Sanchez and his offense has struggled to put up loads of points like past USC juggernauts. Much of that is a product of the fact that the Trojans possess what many believe is the nation’s top defense. If they were to return to their big play, speed enhanced offense, Alabama would be in trouble because there are few if any teams, outside of Oklahoma and Florida, which could score more than 24 points against this team.
Alas, I believe this game goes down to the wire. With neither team giving up much defensively, I would expect that field position and the kicking games would be very important. This will prove true until the games final drive, when Alabama stages a punishing and time-consuming drive late in the fourth. Freshman sensation Julio Jones caps the game-winning march when he catches a touchdown pass to win the game and keep the Tide rollin’.
#4 Alabama 20 #5 USC 16
REMEMBER TO VOTE IN THE SIDE BAR FOR WHO YOU THINK ADVANCES!!!!!
Coming Tuesday/Wednesday of Next Week:
Qtr Final #3: #2 Florida vs. #7 Penn State at New Orleans, Sugar Bowl
Qtr Final 4: #3 Texas vs. #6 Utah at San Diego, Holiday Bowl
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