IHS 2009 NFC North Preview

Chicago Bears

Last Year: 9-7. Despite an anemic offense, the Bears were in playoff contention until the season’s final week. Chicago had their moments, but also benefitted greatly from playing in a shitty division. Still, winning 9 games with Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman at QB is no small feat.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 22nd
Rush Offense: 26th
Pass Defense: 10th
Rush Defense: 5th
Special Teams: 5th

Key Offseason Moves:

The acquisition of Jay Cutler was the biggest news in Chicago. The Bears gave up Kyle Orton and a number of draft picks for Cutler, but they believe they finally have a franchise QB. Too bad they didn’t get anyone from Cutler to throw the ball to.

Chicago also upgraded the offensive line, in theory at least, by signing Orlando Pace. Kevin Shaffer was added to be a swingman at T. Pisa Tinoisamoa was added to help the linebacking corps, and he’s a perfect fit in the Bears cover 2 scheme.

The Bears did lose John St. Clair and John Tait, and Mike Brown was cut.

Top Draft Picks: Jarron Gilbert, DT, San Jose St; Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can another WR step up to take the pressure off Devin Hester?

Will the offensive line be any better?

Can the defense muster up a pass rush?

Will Make the Playoffs If:

Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown rebound from sub-par 2008 seasons.

The Bears offense will adequate enough to make the playoffs, even without a true #1 WR, but without a pass rush the Bears defense isn’t all that good. Brown and Ogunleye providing that pass rush is the key to the Bears having the defense capable of taking them to the playoffs.

Outlook: Third in NFC North.

The Bears offense will undoubtedly improve with Cutler replacing Orton, but they won’t turn into a top-notch unit overnight. They still lack a capable offensive line to protect Cutler and open holes for Forte, and when the tight end is the go-to receiver, the receiving corps is in trouble. Devin Hester’s a nice #2 WR, but he’s not capable of beating double teams yet.

While the defense was pretty good in 2008, it’s no longer capable of carrying the team by itself. The Bears haven’t fortified the pass rush at all, and they shouldn’t expect spike in production without bringing in any other assets. Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye are big names, but their production didn’t match the hype last year. Unless they turn things around, teams will be able to throw on the Bears. In a division with the Packers, that’s trouble.

Expect the Bears to score more points in 2009, but they’ll also give up more points. An 8-8 finish, with a few soul-crushing losses along the way, seems about right.

Detroit Lions

Last Year: 0-16. The Lions were comically bad, and their futility will forever be immortalized. The organization was a fucking joke. Seeing as I'm a Bills fan, I don't get the opportunity to pity other fanbases much, but the Lions fans are deserving of even my sympathy.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 29th
Rush Offense: 32nd
Pass Defense: 32nd
Rush Defense: 31st
Special Teams: 14th

Key Offseason Moves:

Well, after an 0-16 season, the entire organization was overhauled.

Former Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, a big believer in the work of Football Outsiders, was brought in as head coach. That was at least one step in the right direction.

The Lions also cleaned house on both sides of the ball. The most significant loss was probably Shaun McDonald, which says a lot about how low the talent level in Detroit was last season. The Lions added Maurice Morris to back up Kevin Smith. They drafted Matthew Stafford to be the QB of the future and added Brandon Pettigrew to be Stafford’s safety net and complement Calvin Johnson. Bryant Johnson was signed to replace McDonald. Detroit took a flier on Ronald Curry who, if healthy, provides the Lions with a solid WR. Jon Jansen was added for depth on the offensive line.

Defensively, Phillip Buchanon was signed and Louis Delmas was drafted to help the secondary. Grady Jackson was signed to help out the interior defensive line. Julian Peterson was acquired via trade. Peterson isn't very good, but he should immediately start at OLB.

Top Draft Picks: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia; Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma; Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan; DeAndre Levy, OLB, Wisconsin; Derrick Williams, WR, Penn St.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can Daunte Culpepper or Matt Stafford get the ball to Detroit’s playmakers at WR?

Will Kevin Smith emerge as a 1200 yard back capable of wearing down an opposing defense?

Can Schwartz turn the defense into a defense that’s not among the league’s worst?


Will Make the Playoffs If:

10 other NFC franchises disband.

Outlook: Fourth in NFC North.

The Lions offense has some talented guys at the WR and RB position, and Pettigrew should contribute as a run blocker and red zone threat as a rookie. If Stafford steps up as a rookie capable of starting, the Lions offense could be a pretty decent unit.

But the defense hasn’t really improved much. The offseason imports are better than what the Lions had last season, but the Lions were one of the worst teams in NFL history last year. Almost any new players would be an improvement. The Lions need at least one more draft before their defense catches up to their offense as a decent unit.

The Lions should be better, and at least win a game, but this team will be picking in the top 5 again. The skill position players and offensive tackles give hope that the offense will one day be able to lift this team to a playoff contender, but Detroit’s a few years away from finishing anywhere outside last in the division.

Green Bay Packers

Last Year: 6-10.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 10th
Rush Offense: 17th
Pass Defense: 7th
Rush Defense: 28th
Special Teams: 20th

Key Offseason Moves:

The Packers had a pretty quiet offseason, with their big moves being extending Greg Jennings and adding Anthony Smith to help the 3-4 defense. The Packers did score two big additions via the draft, though. B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews should be immediate contributors to a defense that was already pretty decent.

Top Draft Picks: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College; Clay Matthews, LB, USC.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Grant stay healthy for a full season?

Can Raji and Matthews help the defense turn into one of the league’s upper echelon units?

Can Charles Woodson and Al Harris continue to anchor one of the league’s better pass defenses?

Will Make the Playoffs If:

The defense improves a little, and Rodgers and Grant stay healthy.

This is the NFC North’s most talented team. If Raji and Matthews are able to immediately contribute, the defense should go from “pretty good” to “awesome” this year. With a healthy Rodgers and Grant, the Packers offense is as good as any unit in the league. That combination would be enough to lift the Packers to an NFC North title and first round bye.

Outlook: First in NFC North.

The Packers underperformed their peripherals moreso than any other team in 2008. If they merely match their 2008 performance in 2009, they should be a 9-7 team, at worst. But with their improvements on defense, their run defense should improve to a slightly below average unit. Provided Woodson and Harris don’t regress, the pass defense is capable of shutting down just about any passing attack in the NFC, particularly once the weather turns shitty in Green Bay, which should happen around mid-October.

With expected progression from Aaron Rodgers and health from Ryan Grant, the offense should be the juggernaut the Packers have been expecting. Green Bay should win 12 games and be a pleasurable viewing experience each and every week.

It’ll be fun to watch Brett Favre’s reaction if the Packers win the NFC in a year where Favre headed to a division rival with the hope of getting revenge on Green Bay’s front office.

Minnesota Vikings

Last Year: 10-6. Minnesota was very good on defense, but their offense let them down again. Bad Childress and the QBs were again the main culprits, which was a surprise to nobody outside the Vikings organization.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 24th
Rush Offense: 23rd
Pass Defense: 5th
Rush Defense: 4th
Special Teams: 32nd

Key Offseason Moves:

Brett Favre was finally signed to lead this team. You may have heard something about that.

Prior to the Favre fiasco, the Vikes were pretty quiet. Sage Rosenfels was added to compete for a starting position, but of course that was rendered moot after Favre came aboard. Matt Birk departed for Baltimore and wasn’t replaced with anyone outside the organization.

Antoine Winfield was extended for four years. Jimmy Kennedy was signed to add depth on the defensive line. Karl Paymah was added for secondary depth. Ideally, neither Kennedy nor Paymah will be forced into significant roles.

Percy Harvin was drafted with the hope he can spice up the offense. Childress will probably utilize Harvin incorrectly, but he’s a nice piece if Brad gets a clue and figures out how to use him. Phil Loadholt immediately steps into the starting role at RT, which hopefully will help with some of the Vikings’ pass protection issues.

Top Draft Picks: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida; Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma; Asher Allen, CB, Georgia.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can Brett Favre stay healthy, not fade down the stretch, and give the Vikings the franchise QB they’ve lacked?

Can the offensive line hold up without Matt Birk?

Can the Williams wall stay healthy and productive all season, despite their advanced age?

Will Make the Playoffs If:

Favre meets expectations and John Sullivan adequately replaces Matt Birk.

Outside of their head coach, the Vikings have all the pieces in place to be a Super Bowl contender. But teams have gone to the Super Bowl with shitty coaches before; the Vikings have the talent in place to overcome Childress' ability to buttfuck this team at every key stage of the season.

But if Favre isn’t any better than he was in New York, this team didn’t really improve in the offseason, and their first place schedule will result in them missing the playoffs.

Outlook: Second in NFC North.

The defense should be awesome again, although they do have some key contributors getting up there in age. In 2008, Minnesota didn’t run the ball particularly well against tough defenses – as shown by their shitty FO rankings compared to their traditional stats – but hopefully Loadholt can help that and they can overcome the loss of Matt Birk. Percy Harvin should help the offense, or at least give defensive coordinators something else to worry about. Adrian Peterson’s still the NFL’s best RB. Considering how awesome the defense still is, with a healthy Peterson, the Vikes should at least run their way to 9 wins.

With their weak early-season schedule, expect the Vikings to get off to a fast start and every major media outlet to pimp the possibility of Brett Favre leading the team to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, these same pundits will ignore how Favre broke down towards the end of the 2008 season and how the last month is an extremely difficult slate for the Vikes.

If Favre falls off again – and considering he’s playing with an injured rotator cuff and he’s an old fuck, that’s a pretty safe bet – Minnesota could end up losing the division in December. Expect the final game of the season against the Giants to be a de-facto play in game between New York and Minnesota, with the winner getting the NFC’s final Wild Card spot.

Previously Completed:

AFC North
NFC South
AFC South
NFC West
AFC West

Twins Get Dick? (Update: Along With Two Relievers)

And with that headline, IHS now receives page views from an entirely different subset of the population.

Reports are emerging that the Twins have claimed Chicago Cubs SP Dick Harden (some people call him Rich, but he prefers Dick) off waivers, meaning Bill Smith is still holding out hope for a September run. While Smith's hope may be misplaced, Harden would undoubtedly help Minnesota's patchwork rotation. Because of his high pitch counts, Harden's not an innings eater, but he's good for 5-6 innings of high quality performance. He'd at least be more fun to watch than whatever retread(s) the Twins plan to trot out in the fifth rotation spot for the rest of the season.

The Twins have 72 hours from the time of the claim to work out a trade. If Harden comes cheap, he's probably worth taking a flier on, especially if the Twins are open to the idea of re-signing him.

Minnesota may also have put in claims on Brad Penny and Ron Mahay. All of these claims have to be resolved before Sept. 1.

Update: The Twins have reportedly added lefty Ron Mahay and righty Jon Rauch to their bullpen. Again, this is probably too late in the season, but it's nice to see them trying.

IHS 2009 AFC North Preview

Baltimore Ravens:

Last Year: 11-5. Baltimore won a Wild Card berth and advanced to the AFC title game. Along the way, the Ravens blew out the Dolphins and won a bare-knuckle brawl in Tennesee, both on the road with a rookie QB. Baltimore had a chance to win the AFC title in Pittsburgh until the final few minutes. The 2008 Ravens were an excellent team, albeit one that is aging quickly on defense.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 20th.
Rush Offense: 9th.
Pass Defense: 2nd.
Rush Defense: 1st.
Special Teams: 12th.

Key Offseason Moves:

Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan took the NY Jets job and brought Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard with him. Derrick Mason retired, then unretired. Ray Lewis was re-signed. Terrell Suggs was franchised and re-signed. Samari Rolle was cut, but later re-signed. Chris McAllister walked; Dominique Foxworth was added to replace him. Kyle Boller was “allowed” to sign with St. Louis.

Chris Carr and Kelley Washington were added to help the special teams. L.J. Smith was brought in to complement Todd Heap. Michael Oher and Paul Kruger were added to help the aging offensive line and defense. Matt Birk, no spring chicken himself, was brought aboard to fortify the center position.

The Ravens took some major hits in losing Ryan and Scott, but also added some significant pieces. This team is still pretty good, but they’re getting old.

Top Draft Picks: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi; Paul Kruger, OLB/DE, Utah; Lardarius Webb, CB, Nicholls State.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can the team replace Rex Ryan and Bart Scott?

Will Ray Rice and Willis McGahee stay healthy and provide the Ravens with their physical, power rushing attack?

Will everyone on defense stay healthy?

Will Make the Playoffs If:

The aging defenders stay healthy.

The Ravens have all the pieces to maintain a top 5 defense that will carry this team, but they’re counting on a lot of old players to stay healthy. Eventually, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs may all break down. If this isn’t the year they’re done, the Ravens should at least compete for the AFC North title.

Outlook: Second in AFC North.

The Ravens should still be good – they’ll have a power running game behind Rice, McGahee, and McLain that’s necessary to win in the AFC North, and Flacco should improve.

The defense is aging quickly, though. Counting on all the old guys to remain healthy is pretty risky. Replacing Rex Ryan is an even tougher task.

It shouldn’t surprise if the Ravens fall back to being a 9-7 team that narrowly misses the playoffs this year.

Cincinnati Bengals:

Last Year: 4-11-1. Carson Palmer’s health issues derailed any chance of the Bengals being a playoff team. The defense was improved, but still not very good.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 28th.
Rush Offense: 30th.
Pass Defense: 21st.
Rush Defense: 8th.
Special Teams: 24th.

Key Offseason Moves:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh left for greener pastures, but Laverneus Coles was brought in to replace him. Coles should be at least an adequate replacement as a possession WR who complements Chad Johnson and Chris Henry. J.T. O’Sullivan was signed to backup the injury-prone Carson Palmer. Cedric Benson and Tank Johnson were brought back.

Levi Jones was cut and replaced by first round draft pick Andre Smith, although Smith remains unsigned. Nothing else was done to help a porous offensive line.

Roy Williams (the safety, not the WR) was added, along with a plethora of draft picks, to help the defense. Orien Harris was acquired via trade.

Top Draft Picks: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama; Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC; Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech; Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri.

Three Keys to the Season:

Behind the Bengals shitty offensive line, can Carson Palmer stay healthy?

Can the Bengals muster up a running game with Cedric Benson as the feature back?

Will the young defenders help improve the pass defense?
Will Make the Playoffs If:

The offensive line improves enough for Palmer to stay healthy and muster up some kind of running game.

The defense should be decent, especially with the additions of Maualuga and Johnson, but if the offensive line can’t keep Palmer upright and open holes for Cedric Benson, they won’t be any better than 6-10.

Outlook: Third in AFC North.

Cincinnati should be improved and end up with a record around .500. if Smith ever signs, Palmer may be adequately protected; if so, Carson should do a good job getting the ball to Ochocinco, Henry, Coles, and Coffman. With a healthy Palmer and an effective Benson, the Bengals have a shot to be a surprise playoff team.

But even if Palmer makes it through the season healthy, the Bengals won’t run the ball well enough to make the playoffs. Cedric Benson isn’t a good enough RB to take pressure off Palmer and the offensive line will probably suck again. Due mostly to a weak schedule, the Bengals will probably fare well outside of the division, but pencil in four losses against the Ravens and Steelers, four outside the division, and another season outside the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns:

Last Year: 4-12. Entering the season with high expectations, the Browns completely shit the bed. Injuries and ineffectiveness among key players like Braylon Edwards sabotaged any chances of a postseason berth. Romeo Crennel didn’t help things.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 31st.
Rush Offense: 20th.
Pass Defense: 16th.
Rush Defense: 23rd.
Special Teams: 9th.

Key Offseason Moves:

Holy makeover, Batman.

The Browns rid themselves of Romeo Crennel and replaced him with another overweight Belichick disciple, albeit a more arrogant one, in Eric Mangini.

The Browns added some bit pieces in Robert Royal (who sucks, but whatever), David Patten, John St. Clair, Corey Ivy, Eric Barton, Floyd Womack, and Mike Adams. Collectively, they may help a little, but they aren’t turning the Browns into a playoff contender overnight.

In the draft, the Browns traded down and added a few more lesser players before acquiring four guys they hope will help this year. Of them, Alex Mack and Brian Robiskie are the most likely to make an immediate impact.

Top Draft Picks: Alex Mack, C, California; Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio St; Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia; David Veikune, DE, Hawaii.

Three Keys to the Season:

Will one of Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson emerge as legitimate QB?

Can Jamal Lewis give the Browns a decent rushing attack?

Can Mangini and his imports turn the defense into an average unit?

Will Make the Playoffs If:

Quinn steps up, Braylon Edwards stops dropping the football, Lewis doesn’t break down, and the defense improves.

Everything went wrong for the Browns last season, but they still have the pieces in place to have a solid offense. If everything falls into place, the Browns will score points. But Cleveland’s defense isn’t going to turn into a functional unit overnight. They still don’t have many playmakers, and the offseason imports won’t do much.

Outlook: Fourth in AFC North.

If Brady Quinn emerges, Braylon Edwards get over his case of the dropsies, and the offensive line comes together, they have a chance to have a decent offense, provided Jamal Lewis doesn’t fall off this season. But I wouldn’t bet on all of those things happening – especially Lewis staying productive - and the defense is still going to suck. Mangini isn’t a miracle worker.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Last Year: 12-4, Super Bowl Champions. Despite a patchwork offensive line, the Steelers won the Super Bowl with an exciting victory over the Cardinals. Their defense was awesome and the offense was good enough. Mike Tomlin established himself as the NFL’s best young coach.

2008 Football Outsiders Rankings:

Pass Offense: 19th.
Rush Offense: 15th.
Pass Defense: 1st.
Rush Defense: 2nd.
Special Teams: 25th.

Key Offseason Moves:

Bryant McFadden, Nate Washington, Marvel Smith, and Anthony Smith were the most significant contributors to depart. None were great players. They all should be adequately replaced.

Shaun McDonald was signed to replace Washington. Chaz Batch was brought back to back-up Roethlisberger, replacing the departed Bryon Leftwich. Keiwan Ratliff should help make up for McFadden’s absence. James Harrison was re-signed.

Evander Hood was added to help the defensive line. Kraig Urbik should replace Marvel Smith; at the least, he shouldn’t be much worse.

Top Draft Picks: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri; Kraig Urbik, OT, Wisconsin; Mike Wallace, WR, Mississippi; Keenan Lewis, CB, Oregon St.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can Roethlisberger stay healthy?

Can Rashard Mendenhall come back from his injury to team with Willie Parker in giving the Steelers their usual top-notch ground game?

Can the defense stay healthy?

Will Make the Playoffs If:

No crippling injuries occur.

The Steelers have all the major components form their Super Bowl team returning. Hines Ward is getting older, and his injuries are a bit worrisome, but Santonio Holmes should finally break out this season. The offensive line may not have improved much, but it was adequate enough to win the Super Bowl last season.

Outlook: First in AFC North.

The Steelers didn’t lose much in the offseason. They should have another dominant defense capable of carrying them to the AFC North title.

I do worry a bit about the offense, though. While Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, and Rashard Mendenhall give them a capable trio of RBs, they can’t keep hoping their offensive line holds up without any significant reinforcements. Any decline in the offensive line may cost them a first round bye.


Previously Completed:

AFC West
NFC West
AFC South
NFC South

AJR26's Best Metrodome Experiences #9

This is the second of AJR26's Top Ten Metrodome Experiences. For the first, click here.

Unless your mind is in a vegetative state and your family has gone Terry Schiavo on your ass, you know that this is the final season in which the Twins will call the Metrodome their home. All season long, the Twins have been counting down the Top 100 Metrodome Moments leading up to the October 4th finale. Being a lifelong Twins fan, I thought I would share my top ten experiences that I have had the pleasure of witnessing in the plastic blue seats of the Homer Dome. I'll post these every few days until the end of the regular season.

Sadly, not one of these memories involves being a “Wiener Winner” in the Hormel Row of Fame. Just for fun, I’ll post the lyrics to that jingle:


Now that you are at the game
Are you in Hormel’s Row of Fame?
If you’re a lucky seat
You’ll win a Hormel hot dog treat
Great for lunch, great for dinner
You will be a wiener winner
In the HOR-MEL ROW-OF-FAME!


Trust me, that never gets old.

Metrodome Moment #9: 1985 All-Star Game - Ok, I'll admit that I am stretching a bit on this one, but I wanted to get to a list composed of a Top Ten and techincally I was in attendance. In fact, I witnessed the 1985 All-Star Game in utero, considering I was not officially brought into this world for another 27 days. Thus, all of the details of this moment is courtesy of my father and mother. The story goes something like this:

Over the years, my grandpa somehow got to know Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. In both 1984 (San Francisco) and 1985 (Minneapolis), Reggie was kind enough to provide my grandparents with two tickets to the mid-summer classic. Since the game was being played at the Metrodome in 1985, my grandpa wanted to get extra tickets for his kids and their spouses. Typically an inclination like this from my grandpa would have produced results, but as of 48 hours before the All-Star Game, my parents and the others were out of luck.

But sure enough on the day before the game, the same day as the inaugural Home Run Derby, Mr. October came through in the clutch once again. Now, it was known at that time and it still is today that Reggie Jackson can be a hard person with whom to deal. For some odd reason (to this day no one is quite sure why) my grandpa and Reggie got along very well. So on that Monday, my grandpa had gotten a hold of Reggie (or vise versa from what I have been told) and scored eight extra tickets for my mom and dad, along with my aunts and uncles on my mom's side. Pretty cool from a guy that's been portrayed as a first-class S.O.B....even if the seats were in the very top row of the Dome on the third baseline. I am sure my mother made sure to keep her stairclimbing to a minimum, considering she had an eight-pound child inside her.

All-in-all the game was rather boring, with the National League winning 6-1. Some dude named LaMarr Hoyt was the MVP. But to better summerize my All-Star game experience, I'll leave you with a quote from my father, "Attending an All-Star game is just like being at a spring training game, but with better players. And with all the festivities and whatnot, the game feels like an eternity."

If any other contributor, commenter or casual reader has an experience they would like to share, please e-mail IHS and we will be sure to share it.

This Season is going to be Fun!

Even before Brett Favre decided to join the Vikings for the 2009 season, the sentiment in the locker room towards the primadonna quarterback was extremely critical. The sentiment from noted Favre ballsucker and SI football writer Peter King after the signing last week was extremely critical. Hell, the sentiment on this blog from its inception was extremely critical of the egomanical bastard. Now in the last two days, we have had multiple reports of a brewing divide in the Minnesota locker room. Most recently, from ESPN's Adam Schefter:

"Sources with knowledge of the Vikings locker-room dynamics say some players believe Tarvaris Jackson gives the Vikings the best chance to win, while other players believe Sage Rosenfels gives the team the best chance to win -- which is one of the new twists to this storyline. In the words of one NFL source, Favre has "little support" in the locker room as Minnesota prepares for its Monday night preseason game against the Houston Texans."

Little support for the guy after one preseason game and two series of snaps? That seems a little excessive to me, especially when neither of the other signal callers are 100 percent healthy or 100 percent competent. The problem, in my opinion, is that it seems most players would rather have anyone at the helm except Brett Favre.

No matter how you feel about the Vikings' quarterback situation, one thing is for sure: this controversy will go away if Favre and the Vikings get off to a winning start during the regular season. But for a team that was good enough to win its division and advance in the playoffs without #4 and his distractions, this cannot be what Brad Childress and Zygi Wilf had in mind through just two preseason games. After all, Mr. Favre has DIVIDED LOCKER ROOMS BEFORE and it appears he is well on his way to splitting another.

Friday Video Fun: The Chiefs Are Funny

The Kansas City Chiefs may not be good at football, but they're at least decent at making parodies of "The Office."



I don't see why they had to pick on the Bills, though. That's like attacking the autistic kid during PE dodgeball.

HT: Shutdown Corner

IHS 2009 NFC South Preview

Atlanta Falcons

Last Year: 11-5. Atlanta was one of the NFL’s biggest surprises, earning a Wild Card berth and narrowly losing on the road to the eventual NFC Champions. Amazing what having a competent QB will do for a team.

Key Offseason Moves:

Atlanta added Tony Gonzalez to help out Matt Ryan. Brett Romberg was signed to help the offensive line. Peria Jerry, the kid from the Blind Side who didn’t beat the shit out of someone in the library, injure a child, and have the incident swept under the rug, was drafted to help the run defense.

Mike Peterson was signed to help replace Keith Brooking and Michael Boley. Other minor veterans, like Lawyer Milloy, Grady Jackson, and Dominque Foxworth, were allowed to walk. William Moore was drafted to replace the aging Milloy, who you may remember being victimized multiple times by Larry Fitzgerald in the Cardinals-Falcons playoff game.

Top Draft Picks: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi; William Moore, S, Missouri; Christopher Owens, CB, San Jose St.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can Matt Ryan progress into one of the NFL’s top 6 QBs?

Can the defensive imports improve the unit into one of the league’s top 12 defenses?

Will the cornerbacks be at least league average?

Best Case Scenario:

Ryan emerges as one of the NFL’s top QBs. Turner and Norwood team to give the Falcons one of the NFL’s top rushing attacks. Roddy White remains a #1 WR. Tony Gonzalez is just as effective as he was in Kansas City and gives Ryan the security blanket he desperately needs. The offensive line, led by Sam Baker, keeps progressing into one of the NFL’s better units.

Defensively, Peria Jerry gives the Falcons the DT they need in the middle, and when combined with Mike Peterson helps the Falcons rush defense the boost they need to turn into a top 15 defense. The corners aren’t completely embarrassing. William Moore solidifies the safety position.

The Falcons win the NFC South, secure a first round bye, and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:

Ryan goes through a sophomore slump. Turner can’t stay healthy and the curse of 370 catches up to him. Norwood can’t handle his increased role. Roddy White can’t reproduce his 2008 numbers. Gonzalez’s age catches up with him. Michael Jenkins can’t pick up the slack. The offensive line can’t open holes in 2009 like they did in 2008. Atlanta’s offense regresses into a below average unit.

Peria Jerry isn’t ready to start. John Abraham can’t stay healthy. Mike Peterson is over the hill. The CB situation is just as disastrous as it looks on paper. Atlanta’s defense doesn’t improve at all.

The Falcons miss the playoffs.

Will Make The Playoffs If:

Ryan progresses as expected and Turner stays healthy. Atlanta has the talent in place to make a run at the Super Bowl. If Ryan and Turner keep producing, a blip in the defense or an injury from Gonzalez shouldn’t prevent them from making the playoffs, although it may cost them in the playoffs.

Outlook: First in NFC South.

Yeah, it’s a bit risky to expect the Falcons to win the NFC South. It’s counting on a lot of developments, mainly: Matt Ryan showing significant improvement; Michael Turner not suffering the curse of 370; Tony Gonzalez still being healthy and productive; Peira Jerry, Mike Peterson, and William Moore immediately contributing on defense; and the corners turning into productive NFL starters.

But outside of the shaky CB situation, I feel pretty confident the Falcons can fulfill all their question marks. Ryan should improve tremendously this year, Jerrius Norwood will be able to spell Michael Turner effectively if Turner breaks down, Gonzalez should be good to go for at least another year, and the rookies and Peterson should at least be somewhat productive, which will help a decent defense turn into a borderline top 10 unit.

This team looks really, really good. Here’ s hoping the NFC Title Game is the Falcons hosting the Eagles, and Donovan McNabb has a sprained labia, thrusting MV7 himself into a starting role in Atlanta. I’d pay up to $500 to see that game.

Carolina Panthers

Last Year: 12-4. Carolina looked like arguably the NFL’s best team during the regular season, but dropped a home game in the divisional round after Jake Delhomme melted down against the Cardinals. Coaches will always say that one player can’t win or lose a football game, but if I were ever to make a powerpoint presentation contesting that point, Delhomme’s game against the Cardinals would be the first slide.

Key Offseason Moves:

Jordan Gross was re-signed. Julius Peppers was franchised and re-signed. Carolina locked up two of their most important players early, which was extremely important. Jake Delhomme was given an inexplicable 5 year, $42 million extension that virtually ensured he’d be a Panther for at least another three years.

Otherwise, Carolina failed to address the thin defensive line and add another WR to take pressure off Steve Smith. They also lost a few minor contributors, such as Geoff Hangartner, but nobody who should kill them. Maake Kemoeatu was lost for the season during camp, decimating an already thin defensive line.

Top Draft Picks: Everette Brown, DE, FSU; Sherrod Martin, CB, Troy; Corvey Irvin, DT, Georgia.

Three Keys to the Season:

Can Jake Delhomme rebound from his epic failure in the playoffs?

Can the defense recover from Kemoeatu’s injury and maintain its effectiveness against the run?

Can a legitimate second receiving option emerge opposite Steve Smith?

Best Case Scenario:

Jake Delhomme forgets his playoff performance and comes back with a borderline All-Pro season. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both stay healthy and again give the Panthers one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks. Jeff Otah looks as good in the regular season as he has in camp and teams with Jordan Gross to give Carolina a dominant offensive line.


Steve Smith doesn’t miss any time with injury and doesn’t regress in any way. A legitimate second receiver emerges – most likely Mushin Muhammed or Dwayne Jarret.

Julius Peppers keeps doing what he’s doing. Chris Gamble plays like a lockdown corner. Richard Marshall’s reasonably effective as the #2 CB. Big Beast continues to be one of the NFL’s most underrated MLBs.

Carolina wins the NFC South and earns a first round bye. Delhomme doesn’t shit the bed in the playoffs this year.

Worst Case Scenario:

Delhomme’s playoff performance is an indication of things to come. Steve Smith can’t overcome constant double teams. The offensive line isn’t as good in 2009. Carolina’s offense turns into a league average unit.

Julius Peppers remains unhappy and loafs through the season. Chris Gamble continues to be inconsistent. The run defense suffers without Kemoeatu. Without the massive DT, the linebackers can’t stop the run. Carolina’s defense is below average.

The Panthers continue their trend of being very good one year and just bad enough not to quality for the playoffs the next year. Carolina finishes under .500 and misses the playoffs.

Will Make The Playoffs If: The running backs stay healthy, Delhomme plays like he did in the 2008 regular season, and the run defense recovers from Kemoeatu’s injury.

Outlook: Third in NFC South.

Carolina will still have a kickass rushing game, but the run defense will probably struggle a bit this year, and if Delhomme falls off a cliff there’s really no way this team will win enough games to top the Falcons in the standings. The ceiling on this team may not be high, but their floor is pretty high. Pencil them in for somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7.

New Orleans Saints

Last Year: 8-8. New Orleans had one of the best offenses in the NFL, but still had no defense.

Key Offseason Moves:

The Saints attempted to help their defense. They signed CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper, S Pierson Prioleau, and DT Rod Coleman. They also drafted Malcolm Jenkins. All of these moves should help the pass defense – particularly the additions of Greer, Sharper, and Jenkins - but the question is how much.

Charles Grant and Will Smith also received four game suspensions for violating the NFL’s banned substance policy. Their absences will hurt, but the Saints early-season schedule is relatively soft, outside of a trip to Philadelphia.

Top Draft Picks: Malcom Jenkins, CB/S, Ohio St. The Saints traded away the rest of their first day picks.

Three Keys to the Season:

Will the defense be any better in 2009?

Will Marques Colston be able to stay healthy and productive for a full season?

Will Reggie Bush meet his potential now that he’s not expected to be an every down back?

Best Case Scenario:

Drew Brees continues to be one of the NFL’s best QBs. Pierre Thomas rushes for over 1200 yards. Reggie Bush, freed from being miscast as a #1 RB, breaks out as a great multi-purpose player whose 15 touches a game make him more valuable to the Saints than when he was getting 25 touches a game.

Jeremy Shockey stays healthy and combines with Billy Miller to give the Saints one of the NFL’s best TE tandems. Marques Colston stays healthy and teams with Lance Moore and Devery Henderson to give the Saints one of the NFL’s best WR trios. Buck Ortega dies in a fire. The Saints have the NFL’s best offense.

Charles Grant and Will Smith come back strong from their suspensions. Sedrick Ellis stays healthy and finally meets his potential. Jon Vilma stays healthy and continues to be productive. Scott Fujita does the same. The pass defense is immensely improved from 2008; Jabari Greer steps in as a starter, and Malcom Jenkins and Darren Sharper solidify the safety position. Grant and Smith give the Saints the pass rush necessary.

New Orleans’ pass defense is above average, and the run defense is somewhat close to average. New Orleans’ league best offense and just above average defense carry them to 12 wins and a first round bye.

Worst Case Scenario:

Thomas can’t handle a #1 role. Bush can’t handle a #1 role. The Saints running game is average. Colston and Shockey spend most of the season injured. Devery Henderson and Lance Moore are semi-productive, but not #1 WRs. The Saints offense regresses from 2008.

Without Grant and Smith, the Saints get off to a slow start, and Grant and Smith are slow to come back from their suspensions. Ellis remains an enigma. Vilma’s health is still an issue. Greer can’t adjust to playing in a different scheme. Jenkins isn’t ready to step in as an NFL starter. Sharper’s washed up.

The Saints win 6 games, yet still don’t address the defense in the offseason.

Will Make The Playoffs If: The defense is vastly improved. The Saints offense should be a top 5 unit, but if the defense sucks again, they won’t be able to outscore opponents enough to make the playoffs.

In order for the Saints to make the playoffs, Colston and Thomas have to be productive and the defense has to be moderately improved. Thomas is a pretty safe bet to post good numbers, and Colston may stay healthy. But the Saints haven’t really addressed the mediocre run defense. The pass defense may be a bit better – somewhere around league average seems right – but the run defense should remain porous and ultimately cost the Saints the playoffs.

Outlook: Second in NFC South.

The pass defense should be a little better, and the offense should continue to be pretty good. Plus, the Saints are facing a third place schedule. New Orleans should finish around 9-7, which will be good enough for second place in the division but not good enough to grab a wild card.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Year: 9-7. Tampa started the year 9-3 and looked to be headed for an NFC South title and first round bye before dropping the final four games of the season and missing the playoffs.

Key Offseason Moves:

In short, the entire organization was reshaped.

The front office was overhauled. Radio Raheem was brought in as the new head coach. Jeff Jagodzinski was brought in to coordinate the offense after Boston College fired him when he interviewed for the Jets job. The threat of being fired just for interviewing. A story GldnKnight may relate to.

Personnel-wise, the Bucs won’t resemble the squad the had last season. Kellen Winslow was redeployed to Tampa and received a lucrative contract extension. Antonio Bryant was wisely brought back. Derrick Ward was signed to help the rushing game.

Jeff Garcia was jettisoned. So was Brian Griese. The Bucs added Byron Leftwich and Josh Freeman at the QB position, giving them three mediocre QBs and a rookie. Leftwich, Josh Johnson, and Freeman figure to make the final cut, with Luke McCown heading elsewhere.

Veterans Ike Hilliard, Derrick Brooks, Cato June, Warrick Dunn, and Joey Galloway were let go. The Bucs now have Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall fighting for the #2 WR spot. That’s also bad.

Angelo Crowell was signed to replace Brooks and June. If Crowell’s healthy, he should adequately replace their production. Tanard Jackson was suspended for the first four games of the regular season, meaning Will Allen will be starting for the Bucs. Allen starting 4 games is scary thought for Bucs fans.

Top Draft Picks: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St; Roy Miller, DT, Texas.

Three Keys to the Season:

Will Bryon Leftich or Josh Freeman step in as a starting-caliber QB?

Will the defense recover from the offseason purge?

Will Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward team to give the Bucs a top 10 rushing attack?

Best Case Scenario:

Freeman’s ready to start in the NFL and plays a Joe Flacco-like role for the Bucs: he makes some key throws, but mostly stays out of the way. Graham and Ward become a solid RB tandem. Bryant plays like he did in 2008. Winslow stays healthy and plays like a Pro Bowl TE. Clayton emerges as the second receiver. The Bucs offense becomes a solid power running attack and finishes as an above average unit.

Gaines Adams becomes a premier pass rusher. Ryan Sims and Chris Hovan stuff the run well and keep blockers occupied. Barrett Rudd plays like a Pro Bowler. The secondary doesn’t miss Buchanon because Aqib Talib steps up in his absence. Ronde Barber doesn’t miss a step. The Bucs again have one of the NFL’s better defenses.

Tampa gets younger, but doesn’t have to "rebuild." The Bucs grab a Wild Card berth.

Worst Case Scenario:

Leftwich starts the year as the QB, but proves ineffective. Freeman isn’t ready to start either, but he’s thrust into the starting role. Bryant becomes frustrated about Freeman’s inability to get him the ball and causes problems in the locker room. Winslow can’t stay healthy. Graham gets hurt again. Ward can’t carry the load by himself. Tampa’s offense is one of the league’s worst.

Adams doesn’t emerge as a pass rusher. Tampa can’t pressure the QB. Talib isn’t ready to start, partially because he’s a knucklehead. Barber gets old. Without Jackson and with an old Barber and ineffective Talib, the Bucs give up a ton of passing yards. Tampa has a below average defense. Morris is overmatched as a head coach.

The Bucs win four games and secure a top 5 pick.

Will Make The Playoffs If: A lot of things have to go right for the Bucs to make the playoffs. They’ll need a QB to emerge, preferably Freeman, but Leftwich will work for the short term. Winslow will have to stay healthy. Bryant will have to be the same player he was in 2008. Ward and Graham will both need to stay healthy. And the defensive departures will all have to be adequately replaced.

Outlook: Fourth in NFC South.

The Bucs should run the ball well, and the defense should be at least solid, but without a QB they won’t go very far. Some are expecting the Bucs to replicate the Ravens model that worked in 2008, but Tampa’s defense and running game aren’t nearly as good as Baltimore’s. The Bucs are a year or two away from contention, but they should win six games.

Previously Completed:

AFC South
NFC West
AFC West