- Joe Mauer hasn't signed a 10 year contract extension. That's what we get for listening to Mark Fucking Rosen. And, really, it's a good thing. A 10 year contract for Mauer doesn't make much sense from the Twins' perspective.
Mauer is awesome. There's no doubt about that. Locking him up for a significant time should be the Twins' first priority. But the Twins can't ignore that Mauer is likely going to have to switch positions one day, and that when Mauer does shift from catcher to third base, or first base, or DH, his value significantly declines, even if he's awesome with the glove (and count me among those who doesn't see him being a premier defensive third baseman, due to his size and the likelihood that when he shifts positions, he'll do so because his knees are busted. Bad knees do not help a third baseman's range).
An excellent defensive catcher who can OPS in the .950-1.000 range is extremely valuable and should be paid well over $20 million per year, which is what the Mauer's deal should average. But when Mauer's in his mid 30's, he's probably not going to be a .900 OPS player. Mauer should be able to hit for a decent average throughout his career (though probably not over .350), and his eye shouldn't decline unless someone (hi GldnKnight!) punches him in the eye.
But the power Mauer showed won't always be there. Power declines as a player ages (as does contact rate, and average, because pitchers can attack a hitter more when the hitter can't make the pitcher pay with extra base hits). If Mauer regresses like a typical MLB player, and ends up OPSing in the low to mid .800 when he's in his 30's and a corner infielder or DH, he's not a $20+ million per year player. Paying a guy over $20 million per year in that situation is bad business and could fuck over the Twins payroll for years.
A better deal for Mauer would be something in the range of 5-7 years for about $23-26 million per year. That deal would involve Mauer taking a small hometown discount, but would also be the contract that sets him for life. And in 5-7 years, when Mauer's contract expires, the Twins will be better able to determine whether he's going to continue catching. At that point, based on his defensive position, Minnesota could value Mauer's mid to late 30's more appropriately with regard to his expected production, and give Mauer one final contract that ensures he'll be a lifetime Twin.
- Minnesota's apparently making a run at Orlando Hudson. Hudson would bring the Twins' payroll up to over the $95 million mark, which, holy shit, I never thought that would happen.
Adding Hudson would be awesome, even if it is unlikely. Hudson's addition would instantly boost the lineup and ensure the Twins only have one infield position (third base) that's an open competition among shitheads like Danny Valencia and retreads like Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris. With Hudson, the Twins would have an ideal lineup in the 1-9 spots. If bringing in Hudson is at all possible, Bill Smith needs to do everything he can to make it happen.
Hudson's addition would also ensure that Nick Punto, who recently went under the knife, will be used in a utility role and as a defensive replacement. That's a role that better suited for Punto , as the hastily composed venn diagram below illustrates.
- Minnesota's also looking at adding Jarrod Washburn. The Twins considered this around the trade deadline last year, and, well, it's a good thing they didn't pull the trigger then. Washburn would presumably come relatively cheap and compete with Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing for the final rotation spot.
Washburn has significant upside, but I do have some reservations about the Twins signing him. Washburn would likely be given a major league contract, meaning that, if he's not healthy or if he struggles, the Twins are stuck paying his salary all year, which could handcuff them at the trade deadline. And if Washburn's off, he's not a better option than Perkins or Duensing. Plus, Washburn's not exactly a spring chicken at 35. Recovering from his setback last year isn't a given.
Still, if the Twins have room in the payroll, Washburn works. His upside is greater than Duensing's, and probably greater than Perkins, unless Glen rememberedhow to pitch like he did prior to his injuries. But if Minnesota's given a choice between Washburn or Hudson, they should go for Hudson. The difference between Hudson and Punto or Casilla is far greater than the difference between Washburn or Perkins/Duensing unless Washburn's completely healthy and just as productive as he was prior to his injury.
- Bill Smith says that Jim Thome's just going to be a bat off the bench, and that Delmon will start in LF with Kubel serving as the DH. Gardy says that's not how Thome's going to be used, and that Thome isn't strictly going to be a bench player. Let's hope Gardy wins out. Delmon blows.
- Francisco Liriano has dominated in the Dominican Winter League. His velocity is back to being over 95 MPH, and his control has returned. Hopefully Liriano can carry it over into the regular season and become, at the least, a middle of the rotation starter who can slot in behind Baker and Blackburn.
- Finally, on a non-Minnesota Twins note: If you need some television programming to watch tonight, don't forget to FREE VICK!!!
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5 comments:
I would love to sucker punch Mauer just like you were at Cowboy Slim's. Why can't Minnesota have more likable stars? I'm sick of having to root for Mauer and Favre. We need KG, "Straight Cash Homey", and Puck back.
Some people would argue that Jared Allen is a likable star. I'm literate, so I'm not one of those people, but that view is out there.
Adrian Peterson could be likable if he had more of a public personality. For example, if he took more pictures of himself holding dead birds. Even better, Peterson could demand he be referred to as Purple Jesus, and start walking around in purple robes, purple sandals, and with a crown of thorns on his head and fake railroad spikes sticking through his hands (preferably with a football attached to the railroad spikes). That'd earn him a +1 in my book.
Yeah you're right about Peterson and unlike Favre and Mauer, I do generally enjoy watching him play. At least until he fumbles.
Regardless, 10 years for Mauer is ridiculous. Although I'm not convinced that he'll HAVE to move eventually. Piazza never moved, neither did Pudge. And yes, Mauer's a better athlete than either of those guys but there's no proof that at a banged up 32 he could play a serviceable third base in the majors. But even as a .800 OPS catcher, $20 million in 2019 is still not worth it.
THAT VENN DIAGRAM MAKES MY LIFE.
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