This upcoming summer, I will celebrate being on this earth for one-quarter century. That means that I am roughly one-third of the way though life and I will officially be closer to 30 years old than 20 in a few months. That is a rather frightening prospect if you ask me. In all honesty, I have no idea where these last five years have gone, but I am sure a handful of my memories during the last half-decade have been forgotten due to excessive substance abuse.
Not quite as scary, but equally as depressing, is the fact that this story will be the fifth consecutive year in which I have previewed the NCAA Tournament, two of which have appeared on this very unheralded blog. If you've been unable to read any or all of them, let me recap what has transpired:
2006:
The Good - #4 seed LSU and #2 seed UCLA in Final Four; 7-4 in Upset Picks.
The Bad - Picked #11 George Mason to lose in Opening Round and missed on National Champion Florida
2007 (Column lost somewhere on a Carleton College computer):
The Good - 8 of 8 in Elite Eight, 4 of 4 in Final Four, and correct National Champion Florida
The Bad - Missed on Vandy and UNLV in Sweet 16 and 2-7 in Upset Picks
2008:
The Good - 3 of 4 Final Four Teams, both Championship Game teams and Kansas as National Champion.
The Bad - Missed on Xavier & Davidson to Elite Eight
2009:
The Good - I didn't get all the games wrong, though I sure tried.
The Bad - 3 of 4 Final Four Teams wrong. Picked too many upsets in a tournament which was straight chalk into the Sweet 16 (14 of top 16 seeds qualified). PICKED FUCKING GONZAGA FOR THE FINAL FOUR. Not one of my finer moments.
This brings us to this 2010 and a whole new decade. Will my March Madness rules hold or can I possibly suck more than last year? Let's find out.
(AJR26's Note: An addendum to the original rules is that you should always pick at least seven upsets in the first two rounds. I define an upset as anything with a larger discrepancy than one line...an eight-nine or four-five matchup does not qualify. Don't be a pussy, there will be upsets.)
Midwest Regional (St. Louis)
Top Seeds: #1 Kansas, #2 Ohio State, #3 Georgetown
Sleepers: #10 Georgia Tech, #11 San Diego State
I wrote after working at last year's NCAA tournament games at the Metrodome that I believed Kansas was a near shoo-in at the 2010 Final Four. I still think that is the case. The Jayhawks have a rotation of seven to eight players that is second to none in the country this season. That being said this bracket is stacked with Georgetown and Ohio State who could be Final Four participants in another regional. The #4 Terps and #5 Spartans could even catch fire and make a run to Indy, but that would require a takedown of Bill Self's Jayhawks and I just don't see that happening.
1st Round Upsets:
#10 Georgia Tech over #7 Oklahoma State - No real reasoning here, just a hunch because of the amount of talent on Tech's team. Another possible upset is SDSU over Tennessee, but for some reason I think Bruce Pearl and his embattled squad will post at least one victory in this tournament.
2nd Round Upsets: None
Regional Final: #1 Kansas over #2 Ohio State
The Buckeyes possess the best player in the tournament in Evan Turner, but Kansas is the best team. I think that Kansas will allow Turner go for 30+ points and shut the rest of Ohio State's players down in order to advance to Indianapolis. Plus, there ain't no way Dallas Lauderdale can stick with Bloomington's own Cole Aldrich.
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
Top Seeds: #1 Syracuse, #2 Kansas State, #3 Pittsburgh
Possible Sleepers: #7 BYU, #12 UTEP, #13 Murray State
The West Regional has the potential to be pod which busts your bracket. All of the teams from #13 Murray State to #6 Xavier have the potential to spring upsets and advance to the Sweet 16. And yes, that range of teams does include both #9 Florida State and #8 Gonzaga which will have to get past #1 Syracuse which will be without big man Arinze Onuaku.
1st Round Upsets:
#12 UTEP over #5 Butler - The Miners are another team which is underrated at #12. I know its cliche, but the 5-12 matchup always seems to produce an upset and I believe that Butler be the victim. Either way, the winner of this game should have a good chance to get to Salt Lake City because...
...#13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt - The Racers have the most victories in the tournament and are playing a Vanderbilt team from the uber weak SEC. In fact, if it weren't for Kentucky, you could make a case that the Southeastern Conference is the 8th or 9th best in the nation. The Commodores have shown flashes of brilliance this season, but I just have a hunch that Murray State will spring the opening round's biggest upset. The biggest reason behind my inclination is because Vanderbilt is a poor defensive unit, ranking just 64th in defensive efficiency.
In fact, if Vandy does happen to escape the Racers, then I like either UTEP or Butler to eliminate them in the second round.
2nd Round Upsets:
#7 BYU over #2 Kansas State - I'll admit, I talked myself into this pick. For some reason, BYU is very highly rated by the computers, but they were given a relatively low seed considering their Mountain West counterpart New Mexico was on the three-line. To me, the Cougars are at least worthy of a #5 seed and they will prove it downing K-State to advance to the Sweet 16. POLYGAMY FOR ALL!!!
Regional Final: #1 Syracuse over #3 Pittsburgh
Every year after the Super Bowl (when I really start paying attention to college basketball), I write down a half-dozen or so names that I believe could advance to the Final Four. This year my list was Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue, Villanova, and Duke. Depending on the matchups, I usually try to stick to my guns and compose a Final Four with these teams. You'll see that off this list, Kentucky and Duke were both left out of the show by AJR26 for matchup (or experience) purposes. I do believe the Orange as long as they are healthy, will defeat their Big East rival in a knock-down, drag-'em-out Elite Eight battle.
East Regional (Syracuse)
Top Seeds: #1 Kentucky, #2 West Virginia, #3 New Mexico
Possible Sleepers: #10 Missouri, #11 Washington
The East has a nice balance to the bracket, as their are a couple of lower seeds which could pose problems to both Kentucky and West Virginia. The #3 seed New Mexico is highly overrated, but #4 Wisconsin and #5 Temple are both solid teams flying under the radar of the national pundits. As long as both teams play to their potential, however, I think they are on a collision course to the Carrier Dome.
1st Round Upsets:
#10 Missouri over #7 Clemson - Is it me or does Clemson always seem to suck in the NCAA tournament? Couple that with the fact that Missouri's Mike Anderson is a "40 Minutes of Hell" disciple from Arkansas and that spells trouble for Clemson and their shaky guards.
#11 Washington over #6 Marquette - Washington is one of the hottest teams entering the tournament and they have a couple of playmakers who could be difference makers against the Golden Eagles.
2nd Round Upsets: #11 Washington over #3 New Mexico - If you're like me, you are probably wondering how in the hell New Mexico snagged a #3 seed. This puts them ahead of power conference teams like Maryland, Michigan State, and Texas A&M. If the red-hot Huskies can defeat Marquette, then I see them making an improbable run to the Sweet 16, which would provide a little respect to the downtrodden Pac-10 conference.
Regional Final: #2 West Virginia over #1 Kentucky
I have not been sold on Kentucky as a Final Four team all season. John Wall is not as mature as Derrick Rose and I believe DeMarcus Cousins is a year or two away from being Joey Dorsey. Thus, this Kentucky team reminds me of the 2006 or 2007 Memphis squads that bowed out in a Regional Final. In a matchup of two of the most despised coaches in Division I basketball, Bitchin' Bob's Mountaineers will find a way to upset Cheatin' Cal's Wildcats.
South Regional (Houston)
Top Seeds: #1 Duke, #2 Villanova, #3 Baylor
Possible Sleepers: #7 Richmond, #11 Old Dominion
This region could be renamed the Poser Region as the #2, #4, #6 and #8 seeds are all overrated and should be bowing out prior to the Elite Eight. That leaves challengers #3 Baylor and #5 Texas A&M for #1 Duke, both of whom will have large partisan crowds in Houston for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
1st Round Upsets: #11 Old Dominion over #6 Notre Dame - The Irish were about as good as the Gophers this year and yet they're rated a full five seeds higher. Old Dominion, meanwhile, is 16th in Adjusted Defense and can slow the tempo down and bang in the halfcourt with ND. They also hail from the CAA, which has had some success in the last few March Madness's.
2nd Round Upsets: None
Regional Final: #3 Baylor over #1 Duke
Even though this Duke team is one of the best in the last few years, I just don't think they have the horses to stick with a feisty and extremely athletic Baylor team. This one could go into overtime, but unless the Blue Devils shoot the lights out and control the glass, the Bears will make it two Big 12 teams in the National Semifinals.
Final Four (Indianapolis)
#1 Kansas vs. #1 Syracuse
Syracuse went undefeated outside of the Big East this season and was only beaten by one team (Louisville) twice during the regular season. The reason? It is very hard to prepare for the matchup zone defense that the Orange play. With a week to prepare, however, I believe that Bill Self and his staff will implore a strategy to get easy buckets for Cole Aldrich and the Morriss twins inside.
In a rematch of the 2003 National Championship game, I think the Jayhawks solve Jim Boeheim's matchup zone and rock the Orange.
Kansas 84 Syracuse 72
#2 West Virginia vs. #3 Baylor
I struggled mightily in selecting both of these teams to spring an upset and advance to Indianapolis. Both squads will have to overcome statistically stronger opponents in the Regional Finals in Duke and Kentucky. In all honesty, there are only a couple of teams in each region which have the profile for Final Four teams. Baylor is not one of them, but as Luke Winn says they are the best challenger to the Dukies. West Virginia, meanwhile, does fit the profile and has the experience as star players to make a championship run.
I believe the difference in the both the matchup with Kentucky and Baylor for the Mountaineers will be DeSean Butler. He elevated himself to an elite player status in the Big East Tournament and I expect him to carry his team to the National Title game against Kansas.
West Virginia 64 Baylor 58
National Championship
#1 Kansas vs. #2 West Virginia
I did not selection North Carolina as my national champion a season ago because I wanted to go out on a limb. That turned out to be an egregious mistake which made me look more like a fool than an avid college basketball fan. This year, I will not make that mistake again. Kansas has been the best team in the land all year and I am taking the tournament's top seed and best team to cut down the nets at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Kansas 71 West Virginia 60
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