Cinderellas or POSERS?

It's conference tournament time and the next week will provide us with enough Joe Lunardi, Andy Katz, and Seth Davis that you'll want to put a couple rounds of buck shot through your flat screen. When the brackets are announced Sunday night, I'll begin my crack-pot analysis for my 5th annual NCAA Tournament preview that will be posted prior to the opening games. In the meantime, I'll give you analysis of some of the best mid-majors that could be either wearing the glass slipper or exiting in the first round come March Madness.

The latest college basketball polls were released this afternoon and to me a few of the non-power conference schools ranked in the top 20 are teams which are very intriguing heading into championship week. Let's begin with New Mexico which is ranked #8, and projected to grab a #2 seed if they win the Mountain West conference tournament.

The Lobos finished 14-2 in a top heavy conference and swept their closest MWC competitor, BYU. Steve Alford's squad, however, has just two quality wins outside of their league (TX A&M and CAL) and played a strength of schedule ranked around 100. They have won 14 consecutive contests and would be 31-3 with three victories and a MWC tournament title. The resume is strong enough for a #2 line, but unfortunately the Lobos' play isn't quite good enough for a deep NCAA run.
Verdict: Posers

Next, we have #12 Butler, a program which will participate in its sixth NCAA tournament in the last 11 seasons. The Bulldogs are projected to be around a five seed, provided they defeat Wright State in tomorrow's Horizon League final and also depending on how other top teams perform. Along with Gonzaga, Butler has to be considered the class of the mid-major schools as they reached the Sweet Sixteen in 2003 and 2007. Like New Mexico, however, Butler has a very weak SOS and has no quality wins, as their victory over Ohio State came when First-Team All-American Evan Turner was out with an injury for the Buckeyes. They did down Siena in a bracketbuster matchup last month, but I just don't see how this team gets out of the first weekend of play.
Verdict: Posers


#14 BYU is the second Mountain West team to make this list. If the Cougars do not win the conference tournament, then they project to be a four or five seed. If they can run the table in Las Vegas, then BYU could potentially move up to the #3 line. A near identical resume to that of New Mexico's, the Cougars have a terrible strength of schedule and a serious lack of quality wins. For whatever reason, this team is seriously loved by the computers as both Pomeroy and Sagarin have them in their top ten. I like this team to possibly make it to the Sweet 16, unless they have to matchup with an overly athletic team such as Baylor in the second round.
Verdict: Cinderellas



#17 Temple is a squad which has received relatively no pub heading into the postseason, but one that could be a bracket buster. The Owls feature a strong and experienced backcourt along with forward LaVoy Allen, who is averaging a double-double in points and rebounds. They have a signature win over Villanova and two strong decisions over Virginia Tech and Siena. Temple also grades highly in the computers, even cracking the top ten in defensive efficiency. Watch out for this team next weekend as a five or six seed which could advance into the Sweet Sixteen.
Verdict: Cinderellas

Contrary to pretty much every other team on this list, #18 Gonzaga has a resume with a strong strength of schedule (save a win over Division III's Augustana) and one marquee victory (over Wisconsin). The Zags are 26-5 and will likely be a five seed, but this team is probably one or two lines too high with that slotting. They are kind of like a poor man's Duke in the sense that the NCAA selection committee tends to overrate Gonzaga, much like they do with the Blue Devils come tournament. This team is not a good as last year's Sweet Sixteen entrant and their lack of experience, outside of Matt Bouldin, will be their demise. I'd be surprised to see this team get to a regional.
Verdict: Posers