IHS 2010 Minnesota Twins Preview

Good at baseball. Awkward at life.

Hey, would you look at that. Baseball starts again in a week, and thank fucking God. It’ll be nice to have something worth watching on TV every night of the week. Archer re-runs are nice and all, but some variety would be splendid.

Instead of doing the 2010 Minnesota Twins preview in five parts, like I did last year, I’ll attempt to do it in one, long-ass article. Print if out if you need to. Let’s go.

Starting Pitching

The Twins return most of their starters from last year, and still have what I’d call an ideal regular season rotation. The rotation rolls deep, with all five of the Twins’ starters being well above average. Scott Baker’s a solid #2, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey are good middle of the rotation starters, and Carl Pavano fills out the back of the rotation nicely. Whoever emerges to claim the #5 spot in the long run – and it likely will be Francisco Liriano, as he’s getting the first opportunity – should be, at the worst, an average #5 starter.

Some questions exist as to how the Twins’ rotation will play in the new ballpark. At this point, there’s no way to tell whether the park will be a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park, but I’ve heard most people believe that balls will more easily fly out of the yard at Target Field than at the Metrodome.

If Target Field is more of a hitter’s park than the Metrodome, it won’t affect Nick Blackburn, who’s an extreme ground ball pitcher. But Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, among others, would be adversely affected if Target Field ends up being a hitter’s park. Baker and Slowey are fly ball pitchers. They rely on the park and their outfield defense (more on that later) to turn the long fly balls they give up into noisy outs instead of home runs; ifTarget Field turns what was a long fly ball at the ‘Dome into a home run, that’s a problem for Baker and Slowey – and that problem is independent from the downgrade in outfield defense that’s sure to happen this year with the Young/Kubel-Span-Cuddyer OF.

Defense and park effects aside, the Twins’ rotation should be better than last year, provided Slowey comes back healthy. Retaining Carl Pavano was key. Pavano should be better than the jackasses Minnesota trotted out in the period of time between Slowey’s injury and Pavano’s acquisition last year. Expect Pavano to be an innings-eater who posts an ERA under 4.50 at the #4 slot.

Baker should be, well, Scott Baker – he’ll strike out a lot of hitters, walk very few hitters, but give up extra base hits and some home runs. Basically, he’s a #2 starter who can masquerade as an ace on the right day, but who’ll also turn in the occasional 2 IP, 7 ER day. His success is mostly dependent on whether runners are on base when he inevitably gives up a handful of extra base hits on any given day. Baker should be a little bit better in 2009 than in 2010, as he was the victim of some bad luck last year, but if Target Field plays as a bandbox, then Baker’s WHIP and ERA could shoot up.

Nick Blackburn’s 2009 season is repeatable, and the front office was smart to extend him, although I wouldn’t hold out hope that Blackburn turns into any kind of ace – he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers. Blackburn should be a bit worse, unless his mostly luck-based numbers are as good as last year, but the decrease in production shouldn’t be anything substantial, and there’s always a chance his control improves and he.

Kevin Slowey, if he’s healthy, should basically get the same results as he did in 2009, although, like Baker, that could also differ if the ballpark is a bandbox, because of his problem with extra base hits. And Francisco Liriano? Well, your guess is as good as mine. I’m not impressed by Winter League and Spring Training results. Pitching against lineups with 5-6 MLB hitters, tops, is much different from the regular season, and every year a handful of pitchers are said to be “revitalized” or “poised for a big year” because they can plow through lineups that are half-filled with guys who’ll be back in AA and AAA within a few weeks.

But who knows. Maybe this is the year Liriano figures it out. And if he doesn’t, maybe Brian Duensing can perform as a #5 starter.

Bullpen

Yes, losing Joe Nathan fucking KILLED this bullpen’s hopes of being an elite unit. But even without Nathan, the bullpen should be an average group. And overpaying for Heath Bell isn’t going to make this bullpen elite, anyway.

Matt Guerrier is a solid reliever who’s probably best in a 7th inning role, but Guerrier may be pressed into an 8th inning or rotational closer role (if the Twins decide to go with a closer by committee, as it appears they’re doing). Jon Rauch is in a similar position, except Rauch is better than Guerrier; Rauch could be a decent right-handed set-up man, and could fill in at closer in a pinch. But Rauch won’t be an elite back of the bullpen guy like Nathan was.

Jose Mijares is fine as the first lefty out of the bullpen in crucial situations. Clay Condrey is acceptable as a depth pitcher who can contribute in the 6th and 7th inning. With Rauch, Guerrier, Mijares, and Condrey, the Twins have a solid back of the bullpen – if those four pitchers are options 3-6 in the bullpen, the Twins are in VERY good shape.

But what the Twins are missing is a bona fide set-up man and, with Nathan’s absence, a bona-fide closer. They may be able to fill either the set-up man or closer internally, but they’re not going to be able to fill both roles without going outside the organization.

Regarding the set-up role, Rauch is a good fit, but Pat Neshak is the wild card. Neshak could become that set-up man eventually, but he’ll probably need some time to get his arm right. Counting on a substantial contribution from Neshak before June is foolish.

Until the summer, Rauch will probably have to hold down the fort at the set-up position, and maybe even the closer role. If Rauch serves as the closer to begin the season, he’ll probably be able to tread water, but don’t expect to see him in the All Star game.

As to other internal options, at this point in Francisco Liriano’s career, it may be better for the Twins to use him out of the bullpen, and put him in a closer committee with Rauch, Neshak, and Guerrier. I don’t see Liriano ever posting any better than #4-#5 starter numbers, and Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins (when he’s healthy) could probably replicate that production over the course of a season.

But the Twins seem to want to give Liriano one more shot in the rotation. Maybe that’s smart, as maybe they see something that leads them to believe he’ll break out this year. As already explained, I don’t see that, but I’m also not down in Ft. Myers every day.

If the Twins don’t want to move Liriano to the bullpen, they have two options. They can go with what they have, and use Rauch/Guerrier/Mijares/whoever they deem appropriate in the closer role. This appears to be what they’re doing, at least to begin the season.

If the Twins so chose, they go outside the organization to pick up a bona-fide closer. The big name brought up has been Heath Bell, but he’s probably too expensive. For example, last year at the trade deadline, the Marlins were looking at Bell, and the Padres asked the Fish for Andrew Miller AND Logan Morrison (a top 25 prospect in all of baseball) for the 32 year old closer. That’s essentially the equivalent of a Glen Perkins and Aaron Hicks package (Perkins being a little worse of a trade chip than Miller, Hicks a little better than Morrison). And that’s too much to pay for a closer. They need to find a closer who’s cheaper than Heath Bell.

If they look outside the organization, and decide Bell is too expensive, Minnesota can either wait until the trade deadline to find a cheap closer, or they can go after a different guy they’ve been linked to: Jason Frasor. Frasor, currently a Blue Jay, isn’t dominant by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s a quality, dependable arm who could slot in perfectly in a closer by committee with Rauch, Neshak, and Guerrier. A bullpen of Frasor, Rauch, Neshak, Guerrier, Mijares, Condrey, and some random long reliever is deep, fairly talented, and, overall, pretty good. Throw Liriano into that grouping, and the bullpen could be one of the AL’s best.

In short, I’d bet the Twins go with either Rauch or a closer by committee for the season’s first few months, and re-evaluate everything in June. Around June 1, the Twins can see how Rauch is performing, if Liriano’s working out in the rotation, and if Neshak is back to full health. The Twins can then adjust accordingly.

Outfield

A long story short: this outfield should be as good at the plate as they are bad in the field.

Delmon Young had a nice run at the plate last September. Will that continue? I have my doubts. Regardless, Young has always hit lefties well, so he should play against them, at the least. Especially when considering that Jason Kubel is fucking atrocious against lefties. Seriously, look at his splits. Against right handed pitching, Kubel’s 2009 Joe Mauer. Against left handed pitching, he’s 2009 Nick Punto. Against righties, Young should sit down, with Kubel in LF and Thome at DH. Against lefties, Young should play the outfield, while someone who’s NOT Jason Kubel is the DH.

Still, no matter who plays LF, the defense is going to be awful, as both Delmon and Kubel are the “nice route, Magellan” type of outfielders. Delmon has problems defensively because he’s lazy, while Kubel has problems in the outfield because he’s unathletic. The reasons for their poor play notwithstanding, Kubel and Young are both poor outfielders range-wise. On the plus side, both Young and Kubel have adequate arms for LF.

Denard Span shifts from LF to CF, and that shift could put Span in the All Star game. Span’s bat was average for a LF, but for a CF, it’s one of the league’s best. Unfortunately, Span’s glove isn’t one of the league’s best. The Twins lose a ton of range by replacing Carlos Gomez with Span, and Span doesn’t have anything near Gomez’s arm, either. When looking at the move from both an offensive and defensive perspective, the CF position probably isn’t any better in 2010 than it was in 2009.

Michael Cuddyer had a career year in 2009, and, like Joe Mauer, probably will be good again in 2010, but not quite as good as he was in 2009 – expect an OPS closer to .820 than .860, as Cuddy benefitted from an unusually high HR/FB% in 2009. Cuddyer also has problems defensively, specifically with his range and his routes to fly balls, but Cuddy’s plus arm partially makes up for his other fielding deficiencies. He’s an above average right fielder, but he’s not a piece to build a franchise around.

The Twins outfielders should all be above average at the plate. Denard Span can rake for a CF, Kubel mashes righties, Young hits well enough against lefties, and Cuddy’s a pretty good player himself. Still, for all the benefit they’ll bring on offense, this outfield is going to cost runs defensively – especially when fly ball pitchers like Baker and Slowey are on the mound. How many runs they cost depends on how Target Field plays, but a few times this season, expect to be pulling your hair out because of another fielding gaffe from a Twins outfielder.

Infield

Over the offseason, the Twins massively upgraded the infield. Orlando Hudson should be better both offensively and defensively than the cauldron of suck the Twins employed at 2B in 2009. J.J. Hardy struggled with the bat in 2009, but he’s a plus fielder and should help the Twins’ defense, even if his bat never comes back. All Hardy needs to do is post like a .725 OPS with a reasonable OBP to be an excellent all-around player. And, based on his 2009 peripherals and 2010 projections, Hardy should rebound to something like a .250/.315/.420 line, at the least.

Justin Morneau returns at first base. Assuming he’s healthy, Morneau should continue to be one of the league’s best first basemen. Sure, his defense could use some work, but when Morneau’s bat is as good as it has been, defense can take a back seat.

At third base, the Twins figure to employ a platoon between two players best served as utility infielders: Nick Punto and Brandon Harris. Harris has a capable bat, especially against lefties, but his defense leaves things to be desired. Punto’s excellent with the glove, and he’s all gritty and shit, but he can’t hit worth dick. When compared to the rest of the American League,the Twins' third base production figures to be below average .

Still, all Punto and Harris have to do is play good defense and put up #9 spot worthy numbers at the plate. They can do that, and if not, the Twins can find a cheap replacement at the trade deadline, as they did last year when they picked up Orlando Cabrera. If Danny Valencia hits well at AAA, the Twins could even look to upgrade at 3B by promoting Valencia in June or July, before looking outside the organization.

At catcher, Joe Mauer’s back, with an 8 year contract extension in hand. Mauer’s extension removes a potentially huge elephant in the room, and, all in all, is a pretty reasonable deal for both sides. It may be a year or two too long, but Mauer also took a bit of a discount in accepting $23 million per year. There’s not much to complain about in that deal.

On the field, unlike last year, Mauer’s healthy to begin the season, although he may make a customary DL trip at some point. Still, Mauer should again post terrific numbers. It’s probably asking too much for Mauer to repeat his 2009 season – after all, that 2009 was one of the best seasons from a catcher in MLB history – but asking for, say 85% of Mauer’s 2009 production is reasonable. And that’s roughly what I’d expect out of Mauer – another tremendous season, but not quite as good as 2009. Mauer certainly has the capability to improve on his 2009, but it’s more reasonable to expect something like a .415 OBP/.950 OPS, as opposed to a .440 OBP/1.031 OPS. The former would still make him the frontrunner for the AL MVP.

On the bench, the Twins added Jim Thome. Thome literally can’t play first base anymore – he hasn’t played the field in years, and when he was traded from the Sox to the Dodgers last summer, he told the Dodgers he’d only play the field in an “extreme emergency.” But Thome’s bat should help at DH and off the bench. He’ll be an asset against right-handed pitching.

The rest of the bench is pretty average. The loser of the Harris-Punto pillow fight has one bench spot, and Alexi Casilla has another. Wilson Ramos may be MLB ready, but I’d bet the Twins keep him in AAA, to delay his arbitration/service time, and go with Drew Butera as the backup catcher, so long as Butera is healthy.

The Twins probably won’t keep around a backup OF who can play CF in a pinch. Jacque Jones has had a nice spring, and he may have been a decent option off the bench, but whatever. Jones can’t play CF, and Alexi Casilla has more upside. If Jones ends up walking away instead of heading to AAA, the Twins don’t lose much.

Outlook

Prior to Joe Nathan’s injury, I had the Twins pegged for 90-91 wins…and another exit in the ALDS. Without Joe Nathan, the Twins should be able to win 87-88 games…and still lose in the ALDS.

This Twins team is built to survive the regular season. The rotation is deep. The lineup should score enough runs. The bullpen has enough arms to cycle through and not be crushed if one fails to perform. The defense is adequate. The deep rotation, offense, deep bullpen, and average defense are enough to get the Twins to the postseason.

But the Twins don’t have the ingredients to go far in the postseason. Specifically, they lack an ace at the top of the rotation and 2-3 power arms in the bullpen.

The bullpen problem could have been overcome if Nathan was healthy and Neshak’s return was strong. But the lack of an ace wasn’t going to be overcome, and that lack of an ace is going to continue keeping the Twins from having postseason success.

The Twins can succeed in the regular season, because even without an ace, Minnesota’s #2-5 starters are as good as most other teams' #2-5 pitchers, and the Twins are one of the AL's premiere offensive ballclubs. But in the postseason, when a team only uses three starters, the Twins suffer without that ace at the top of the rotation. The Yankees can throw CC Sabathia, and count on a 7 inning, 2 run performance, while the Twins have to hope Scott Baker pitches out of his mind to give the same performance. And when the Twins go down the rotation against someone like the Yankees, the Twins only match up well with the #3-5 pitchers in the rotation. In the playoffs, that’s what costs Minnesota a division series or LCS. And even with a healthy Joe Nathan, that problem wasn’t going to be fixed.

The 2010 Twins should be good. Maybe even very good. Even without Joe Nathan, the Twins have enough talent to repeat as AL Central Champions – partially because the AL Central should once again be mediocre, partially because the Twins are a solid ballclub. If Minnesota gets a few breaks, they could, maybe, even advance to the ALCS. But until the Twins can find a true ace – whether that ace come from outside the organization or internally – the Twins’ ceiling will always be the ALCS.

Pick: 87-75, AL Central Champions

Donovan McNabb and the Vikings

Donovan McNabb is, again, on the trade block, and it looks like this is the year the Eagles finally, moronically, dump him. If you believe Adam Schefter, Philadelphia has already guaranteed Kevin Kolb the starting job next year. The Eagles aren’t going to bench McNabb for Kolb, even if Kolb is the better quarterback going forward (which he’s probably not), just like the Packers wouldn’t have benched Brett Favre for Aaron Rodgers, even if Rodgers was the better quarterback going forward (which he probably was).

Instead, the Eagles are going to trade McNabb.

Reports are the Eagles are looking for “a top 42 pick” (a pretty fucking arbitrary number, no?) or “a combination of picks and players” (a profound statement from the reporter). And that’s where the Vikings come in: wisely, Donovan McNabb has told Oakland and Buffalo to fuck the fuck off, because Donovan doesn’t want to be part of the massive rebuilding jobs in those two shitshanties. McNabb’s said that his first choice is to be a Viking.

The Vikings currently have an opening at quarterback, because, for some reason and to the surprise of many, Brett Favre hasn’t yet announced his decision as to whether he’s playing in 2010. Unprecedented for him, I know. Completely out of character. But the Vikes are apparently willing to wait out Favre, mostly because Ziggy has some kind of faux-loyalty to Favre, based on Favre's lone year of service, which is further proof that Ziggy’s probably a fucking Nazi (not that there’s anything wrong with that).

But should the Vikes wait out Favre? Is Brett Favre really a better fit for them, in 2010 and for the foreseeable future, than Donovan McNabb?

Fuck and no, he is not.

Now, at this point, you might be saying something like: “oh, sure, dmk. You’re going to be unbiased in this. You fucking DEPLORE everything about Favre. I’m pretty sure you’ve hoped for his death more than you’ve hoped for anyone else’s death, at least anyone else you’ve written about. Pardon me if I don’t take you seriously, cockslot.”

My reply to this would be two parts:

(1) you should never take me seriously. I’m a fucking stroke.

(2) I’m capable of hating a person but acknowledging their skill/fit for a particular team (see: Terrell Owens to Buffalo).

And Donovan McNabb is a better investment for the Vikings than Brett Favre. Why?

Age: Brett Favre’s going to be playing as a 41 year old next season. Donovan McNabb will be turning 34 during the 2010 season.

Favre has, what, one more year left? Maybe two, and I’d seriously doubt Favre will be returning at age 42 and still be one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, like he was last season. With Favre, the Vikings probably have one year left of an elite offense before they turn the reigns over to the Tarvaris/Sagecopter shitshow and go back to having an average offense.

McNabb isn’t a spring chicken at 34. But he should, at the least, have 3 years of excellent performance left. And it’s no stretch to say he can give 4-5 years of very solid production. QBs typically don’t fall off a cliff the same way that players at other positions do. McNabb doesn’t have nagging injuries in his past that indicate he’ll age poorly, he doesn’t have concussion problems that may force an early retirement, and he’s been relatively healthy throughout his career (vomiting in the Super Bowl is not an injury).

McNabb should be around for 4-5 years, which is perfect. Because Adrian Peterson’s probably got 4-5 years of peak performance left, before his punishing running style catches up to him and his production promptly falls off a cliff.

Physical Ability: McNabb can be extremely frustrating to watch. Thanks to his very inconsistent, mostly shitty mechanics, his accuracy can go from pinpoint to “waydafuggoff” on a game to game basis, and there’s no way to tell which Donovan you’re getting until the game starts. That’s just the way he is, because of his mechanics.

But even at his shittiest, McNabb’s still a very good quarterback. He has the arm strength necessary to make all the throws, and he’s mobile enough to move around in the pocket when the Vikings’ less than impressive pass protection breaks down. And because McNabb’s only turning 34, the Vikes wouldn’t have to worry about this physical ability going out the window in the immediate future, like they’d have to with Favre.

Familiarity With The Offense: Like Favre, McNabb is very familiar with the Vikings’ offensive playbook. Like when Favre came to Minnesota, there’d be very little, if any, adjustment period for Donovan, were the Vikes to bring him aboard. This familiarity isn’t so much of an advantage for McNabb as it is not a disadvantage.

Past Success: Donovan’s led his team to five NFC title games and one Super Bowl. Yeah, he’s never won a Super Bowl, and he’s lost four NFC title games. But let’s not make Brett out to be some kind of Tom Brady-like uber-winner. Dude won one Super Bowl, and it was largely thanks to Desmond fucking Howard. Like McNabb, Favre has a history of choking in big games (see: Super Bowl XXXII, NFC title games in 2008 and 2010).

Past success isn't necessarily indicative of future performance, but if you're going to argue that Favre's likely to do well because of his past success, then the same argument works for McNabb. Also, “winners” don’t really exist, but if they did, Favre wouldn’t be much more of a winner than McNabb, especially at this point in their respective careers.

Less Prone to Brain-Melting Decisions: McNabb has faults, such as nearly throwing up in the Super Bowl, attending Syracuse, not knowing the rules of overtime, and hanging out with Terrell Owens. But McNabb also doesn’t make the “hey look at me I’m just a kid having fun out there let’s throw this up and see what happens” decisions Brett makes, such as when Favre decides to force the ball into a receiver covered by five people, or pass up an easy 8 yards and a field goal to throw the ball back across his body.

So, you know, the Vikes might get blown out because McNabb can’t hit a woman from the kitchen on that particular day, but they won’t lose in a soul crushing manner because of a critical mistake at the end of the game. I guess that's an improvement.

Not a Douchebag:


McNabb hasn’t fucked his way through most of Philadelphia’s women, like Brett has in Green Bay. He’s never been called a hero for getting himself addicted to vicodin and being forced into treatment. He doesn’t have a relationship with Peter King. He doesn’t waffle over retirement ever year. He’s never made unsolicited phone calls to other teams to tell them an ex-team’s audibles. He doesn’t make Wrangler commercials. He doesn’t make the national media drop to their knees quicker than your sister.

What McNabb does do is attend offseason workouts, show up to camp on time, and not make himself a media circus. He plays football, and he plays very well, and he does so without dictating that he's the center of attention. At least publicly, his actions and words indicate he cares more about the team than himself. Novel concept.

Basically, McNabb brings the production of Favre, without all the off the field bullshit. Which is nice. It’d be lovely for the Vikes to have a likeable quarterback again. What’s it been, since Randall Cunningham?

I can’t see a scenario where the Vikings tell Brett Favre the equivalent of “tits or GTFO” and Favre decides to retire. If Favre doesn’t make a decision until a week before the season starts, Chilly and Ziggy won’t care. But they should.

If the price isn’t a first round pick - and it doesn’t look like it is – then the Vikes should jump on the opportunity to acquire Donovan, and they should do so immediately. Hell, they could even recoup a draft pick by dealing Sage to the Raiders.

By acquiring Donovan McNabb, the Vikes would end the uncertainty surrounding their QB situation. Minnesota could count on having excellent pieces at the skill positions for the foreseeable future. Donovan, AP, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe would all be around that 4-5 year period. No matter how much the defense regressed when the Williams Wall retired, the offense would remain among the league’s best with a McNabb-AP-Rice core. And they’d do so for more than one year, which wouldn’t be the case with Favre.

Ask yourself this: last offseason, if you were given the choice between Favre and McNabb, who would you have chosen? I’m guessing – or at least hoping – you’d have chosen McNabb. Your answer should be the same this offseason. McNabb’s just as productive, younger, and less of a distraction. He’s a better option as the Vikings QB, for both the present and the future.

douchebag pic via

Butler's Shelvin Mack Has A Message For Syracuse

FUCK YOU, Doughboy. I can read. You see this shoe? It says Adidas.

.

I Hope This Is True

This story about my favorite draft prospect and yours, Timothy Q. Tebow IV, is passed on from the, uh, less than reliable Mike Florio at PFT. That said, sweet baby Jesus I hope it's true, because it's fucking hilarious.

At the Scouting Combine, the Wonderlic exam is administered to players in groups. The 12-minute test is preceded by some brief instructions and comments from the person administering the test.

Per a league source, after the person administering the test to Tebow's group had finished, Tebow made a request that the players bow their heads in prayer before taking the 50-question exam.

Said one of the other players in response: "Shut the f--k up." Others players in the room then laughed.

If this is true - and that's a big if - I have two points:

1. I want the Bills to take the guy who said "Shut the fuck up" with the #9 overall pick. I don't care if the guy was Jevan Snead, or Eric Decker, or some other similarly worthless asshole. That guy can play for my team any day.

2. Hopefully Tebow takes the hint that attempting to shove your religion down other people's throats is a bad idea, and stops doing shit like writing Bible verses on his eyeblack (not that the NFL would allow that anyway). For his own sake, if nobody else's. But the guy got an 880 on his SAT, so he ain't exactly the sharpest crayon in the box, and probably won't take the hint.

Still, I doubt the accuracy of this story, or that it will dissuade Tebow. Part of the reason Tebow may catch heat for his overt, in-your-face Christianity is that he hasn't accomplished dick in the NFL yet. If Tebow ever does accomplish something, he'll be able to say whatever the fuck he wants, and ain't nobody gon' stop him. Just look at Kurt Warner. That guy's on his knees more than Lindsay Lohan, but nobody cares because he's, like, awesome (or was, before he retired).

Once Tebow finds some success in the NFL - and, unfortunately, I think he will - he'll be able to go all God-squad on the heathens, and nobody will say shit about it, because he's good. At least as long as Tebow ignores that he's breaking Jesus' rules by working on Sunday and touching a pigskin. And, if you believe Jacory Harris, by being face-deep in Gainesville gash.

Just to Wet Your Appetite

Here are some cell phone quality photos from this weekend's openhouse at Target Field. I will vouch for the fact that everyone in attendance had an ear-to-ear grin on their face when taking in the ballpark and its surroundings...and that was before the Mauer signing.


Downtown Minneapolis from our seats in Section 224.



Concourses wide enough that even GldnKnight's ass should have room to maneuver.



Budweiser Roof Deck and ginormous HD scoreboard.


Yeah, I'd say this place is going to be tits.

Baby Jesus is Signed

Eight years and $184 million later...Amen.

Child, Please

I was an avid supporter of Tim Tebow and his performance as a college football player at Florida. He will go down as one of the most successful quarterbacks in the game's history, but his prospects as an NFL quarterback? Ehh, not impressed. If you want a comparison, think more Chris Leak or Troy Smith than Randall Cunningham.

I was and am not and will never be, however, very big on the side show which he commands due to his humanitarian efforts and outspoken beliefs. But his sideshow and the media's love affair with it are the only reasons I can understand this:

"On the heels of an impressive workout at Florida's pro day, league sources say that Tim Tebow is among those players who have been invited to New York for the April 22-24 NFL draft."

If anyone can tell me why Tim Tebow would be taken prior to the third round, then I'm all ears. If it has anything to do with character or leadership or intangibles, then you can spare me from your stupidity.

AJR26's First NCAA Tournament Preview of the Decade

This upcoming summer, I will celebrate being on this earth for one-quarter century. That means that I am roughly one-third of the way though life and I will officially be closer to 30 years old than 20 in a few months. That is a rather frightening prospect if you ask me. In all honesty, I have no idea where these last five years have gone, but I am sure a handful of my memories during the last half-decade have been forgotten due to excessive substance abuse.

Not quite as scary, but equally as depressing, is the fact that this story will be the fifth consecutive year in which I have previewed the NCAA Tournament, two of which have appeared on this very unheralded blog. If you've been unable to read any or all of them, let me recap what has transpired:

2006:
The Good - #4 seed LSU and #2 seed UCLA in Final Four; 7-4 in Upset Picks.
The Bad - Picked #11 George Mason to lose in Opening Round and missed on National Champion Florida

2007 (Column lost somewhere on a Carleton College computer):
The Good - 8 of 8 in Elite Eight, 4 of 4 in Final Four, and correct National Champion Florida
The Bad - Missed on Vandy and UNLV in Sweet 16 and 2-7 in Upset Picks

2008:
The Good - 3 of 4 Final Four Teams, both Championship Game teams and Kansas as National Champion.
The Bad - Missed on Xavier & Davidson to Elite Eight

2009:
The Good - I didn't get all the games wrong, though I sure tried.
The Bad - 3 of 4 Final Four Teams wrong. Picked too many upsets in a tournament which was straight chalk into the Sweet 16 (14 of top 16 seeds qualified). PICKED FUCKING GONZAGA FOR THE FINAL FOUR. Not one of my finer moments.


This brings us to this 2010 and a whole new decade. Will my March Madness rules hold or can I possibly suck more than last year? Let's find out.


(AJR26's Note: An addendum to the original rules is that you should always pick at least seven upsets in the first two rounds. I define an upset as anything with a larger discrepancy than one line...an eight-nine or four-five matchup does not qualify. Don't be a pussy, there will be upsets.)


Midwest Regional (St. Louis)

Top Seeds: #1 Kansas, #2 Ohio State, #3 Georgetown
Sleepers: #10 Georgia Tech, #11 San Diego State

I wrote after working at last year's NCAA tournament games at the Metrodome that I believed Kansas was a near shoo-in at the 2010 Final Four. I still think that is the case. The Jayhawks have a rotation of seven to eight players that is second to none in the country this season. That being said this bracket is stacked with Georgetown and Ohio State who could be Final Four participants in another regional. The #4 Terps and #5 Spartans could even catch fire and make a run to Indy, but that would require a takedown of Bill Self's Jayhawks and I just don't see that happening.

1st Round Upsets:
#10 Georgia Tech over #7 Oklahoma State - No real reasoning here, just a hunch because of the amount of talent on Tech's team. Another possible upset is SDSU over Tennessee, but for some reason I think Bruce Pearl and his embattled squad will post at least one victory in this tournament.

2nd Round Upsets: None



Regional Final: #1 Kansas over #2 Ohio State
The Buckeyes possess the best player in the tournament in Evan Turner, but Kansas is the best team. I think that Kansas will allow Turner go for 30+ points and shut the rest of Ohio State's players down in order to advance to Indianapolis. Plus, there ain't no way Dallas Lauderdale can stick with Bloomington's own Cole Aldrich.


West Regional (Salt Lake City)

Top Seeds: #1 Syracuse, #2 Kansas State, #3 Pittsburgh
Possible Sleepers: #7 BYU, #12 UTEP, #13 Murray State

The West Regional has the potential to be pod which busts your bracket. All of the teams from #13 Murray State to #6 Xavier have the potential to spring upsets and advance to the Sweet 16. And yes, that range of teams does include both #9 Florida State and #8 Gonzaga which will have to get past #1 Syracuse which will be without big man Arinze Onuaku.

1st Round Upsets:
#12 UTEP over #5 Butler - The Miners are another team which is underrated at #12. I know its cliche, but the 5-12 matchup always seems to produce an upset and I believe that Butler be the victim. Either way, the winner of this game should have a good chance to get to Salt Lake City because...

...#13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt - The Racers have the most victories in the tournament and are playing a Vanderbilt team from the uber weak SEC. In fact, if it weren't for Kentucky, you could make a case that the Southeastern Conference is the 8th or 9th best in the nation. The Commodores have shown flashes of brilliance this season, but I just have a hunch that Murray State will spring the opening round's biggest upset. The biggest reason behind my inclination is because Vanderbilt is a poor defensive unit, ranking just 64th in defensive efficiency.
In fact, if Vandy does happen to escape the Racers, then I like either UTEP or Butler to eliminate them in the second round.

2nd Round Upsets:
#7 BYU over #2 Kansas State - I'll admit, I talked myself into this pick. For some reason, BYU is very highly rated by the computers, but they were given a relatively low seed considering their Mountain West counterpart New Mexico was on the three-line. To me, the Cougars are at least worthy of a #5 seed and they will prove it downing K-State to advance to the Sweet 16. POLYGAMY FOR ALL!!!



Regional Final: #1 Syracuse over #3 Pittsburgh
Every year after the Super Bowl (when I really start paying attention to college basketball), I write down a half-dozen or so names that I believe could advance to the Final Four. This year my list was Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue, Villanova, and Duke. Depending on the matchups, I usually try to stick to my guns and compose a Final Four with these teams. You'll see that off this list, Kentucky and Duke were both left out of the show by AJR26 for matchup (or experience) purposes. I do believe the Orange as long as they are healthy, will defeat their Big East rival in a knock-down, drag-'em-out Elite Eight battle.


East Regional (Syracuse)

Top Seeds: #1 Kentucky, #2 West Virginia, #3 New Mexico
Possible Sleepers: #10 Missouri, #11 Washington

The East has a nice balance to the bracket, as their are a couple of lower seeds which could pose problems to both Kentucky and West Virginia. The #3 seed New Mexico is highly overrated, but #4 Wisconsin and #5 Temple are both solid teams flying under the radar of the national pundits. As long as both teams play to their potential, however, I think they are on a collision course to the Carrier Dome.

1st Round Upsets:
#10 Missouri over #7 Clemson - Is it me or does Clemson always seem to suck in the NCAA tournament? Couple that with the fact that Missouri's Mike Anderson is a "40 Minutes of Hell" disciple from Arkansas and that spells trouble for Clemson and their shaky guards.

#11 Washington over #6 Marquette - Washington is one of the hottest teams entering the tournament and they have a couple of playmakers who could be difference makers against the Golden Eagles.

2nd Round Upsets: #11 Washington over #3 New Mexico - If you're like me, you are probably wondering how in the hell New Mexico snagged a #3 seed. This puts them ahead of power conference teams like Maryland, Michigan State, and Texas A&M. If the red-hot Huskies can defeat Marquette, then I see them making an improbable run to the Sweet 16, which would provide a little respect to the downtrodden Pac-10 conference.



Regional Final: #2 West Virginia over #1 Kentucky
I have not been sold on Kentucky as a Final Four team all season. John Wall is not as mature as Derrick Rose and I believe DeMarcus Cousins is a year or two away from being Joey Dorsey. Thus, this Kentucky team reminds me of the 2006 or 2007 Memphis squads that bowed out in a Regional Final. In a matchup of two of the most despised coaches in Division I basketball, Bitchin' Bob's Mountaineers will find a way to upset Cheatin' Cal's Wildcats.


South Regional (Houston)
Top Seeds: #1 Duke, #2 Villanova, #3 Baylor
Possible Sleepers: #7 Richmond, #11 Old Dominion

This region could be renamed the Poser Region as the #2, #4, #6 and #8 seeds are all overrated and should be bowing out prior to the Elite Eight. That leaves challengers #3 Baylor and #5 Texas A&M for #1 Duke, both of whom will have large partisan crowds in Houston for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.

1st Round Upsets: #11 Old Dominion over #6 Notre Dame - The Irish were about as good as the Gophers this year and yet they're rated a full five seeds higher. Old Dominion, meanwhile, is 16th in Adjusted Defense and can slow the tempo down and bang in the halfcourt with ND. They also hail from the CAA, which has had some success in the last few March Madness's.

2nd Round Upsets: None



Regional Final: #3 Baylor over #1 Duke
Even though this Duke team is one of the best in the last few years, I just don't think they have the horses to stick with a feisty and extremely athletic Baylor team. This one could go into overtime, but unless the Blue Devils shoot the lights out and control the glass, the Bears will make it two Big 12 teams in the National Semifinals.


Final Four (Indianapolis)

#1 Kansas vs. #1 Syracuse
Syracuse went undefeated outside of the Big East this season and was only beaten by one team (Louisville) twice during the regular season. The reason? It is very hard to prepare for the matchup zone defense that the Orange play. With a week to prepare, however, I believe that Bill Self and his staff will implore a strategy to get easy buckets for Cole Aldrich and the Morriss twins inside.
In a rematch of the 2003 National Championship game, I think the Jayhawks solve Jim Boeheim's matchup zone and rock the Orange.
Kansas 84 Syracuse 72

#2 West Virginia vs. #3 Baylor
I struggled mightily in selecting both of these teams to spring an upset and advance to Indianapolis. Both squads will have to overcome statistically stronger opponents in the Regional Finals in Duke and Kentucky. In all honesty, there are only a couple of teams in each region which have the profile for Final Four teams. Baylor is not one of them, but as Luke Winn says they are the best challenger to the Dukies. West Virginia, meanwhile, does fit the profile and has the experience as star players to make a championship run.

I believe the difference in the both the matchup with Kentucky and Baylor for the Mountaineers will be DeSean Butler. He elevated himself to an elite player status in the Big East Tournament and I expect him to carry his team to the National Title game against Kansas.
West Virginia 64 Baylor 58

National Championship

#1 Kansas vs. #2 West Virginia
I did not selection North Carolina as my national champion a season ago because I wanted to go out on a limb. That turned out to be an egregious mistake which made me look more like a fool than an avid college basketball fan. This year, I will not make that mistake again. Kansas has been the best team in the land all year and I am taking the tournament's top seed and best team to cut down the nets at Lucas Oil Stadium.



Kansas 71 West Virginia 60